- Experts caution against viewing deals as breakthroughs amid deep mistrust and ongoing disputes

- Analysts say Trump’s Asia tour was an exercise in transactional diplomacy as Washington seeks to reassert influence in region

ISTANBUL 

US President Donald Trump’s high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is being hailed by experts as a “good beginning” that could help ease years of tension between the world’s two largest economies, even as mistrust continues to cloud the relationship.

The two leaders met last week in the South Korean port city of Busan – a symbolic location bridging US influence in East Asia and China’s expanding regional footprint. The summit marked the climax of Trump’s whirlwind three-nation tour across Asia, where he sought to reassert American influence through a mix of trade deals, personal diplomacy and sharp transactional bargaining.

While Trump publicly lauded the talks as “fantastic,” announcing that Beijing had agreed to purchase more US agricultural and energy products, analysts say the true significance of the meeting lies less in the deals themselves and more in the fact that the two sides were talking at all.

“Trump and Xi’s meeting has been a good beginning for US-China bilateral ties,” Jagannath Panda, a professor and head of the Stockholm Center for South Asia & Indo-Pacific, told Anadolu. “It has opened a gateway for their bilateral negotiation and to be a continuous negotiation channel, from here on.”

But he cautioned against premature optimism, suggesting the outcome of the first meeting should not necessarily be seen as “positive or productive.”

Kenzo Fujisue, a former Japanese senator and minister, offered a similar note of tempered expectation.

“Maybe the situation may not change in one year or two years,” he told Anadolu, acknowledging a broader sentiment that the rivalry’s roots run too deep for quick reconciliation.

Despite the public show of goodwill, contentious issues such as Taiwan continue to loom large over the relationship.

In a CBS interview aired Sunday, Trump said he has a “clear understanding” with Xi that Beijing would refrain from attacking Taiwan during his presidency.

“His people have openly said at meetings, ‘We would never do anything while President Trump is president,’ because they know the consequences,” Trump said.

He added that the issue never came up during the Busan meeting because the Chinese leader “understands it very well.”

That combination of public cooperation and private warning leaves Washington’s regional allies walking a diplomatic tightrope. Many Asian governments, from Japan to the Philippines, remain wary of being caught between an assertive China and a transactional US.

According to Panda, Asian nations are watching “very closely.” Most, he said, will “take a very careful and conservative approach in dealing with the Trump administration, because they know that President Trump is very unpredictable.”

Tour defined by ‘transactional diplomacy’

The Busan meeting capped a tour analysts describe as an exercise in transactional diplomacy – a hallmark of Trump’s foreign policy both in his first term and since returning to office.

“Trump has been quite direct and quite transactional when it comes to the imposition of tariffs,” Panda noted, adding that even US allies have not been spared. He described Trump’s approach as using economic tools not merely for profit, but as a form of strategic leverage.

However, he said Washington’s aim is not to alienate partners.

“The Trump administration is not here to mess up America’s classical ties with the regions,” he said. “What it wants to make clear to the region is that America wants business, and America wants the money back.”

Behind Trump’s tariff maneuvers, Panda added, also lies a broader ambition – to reassert the dominance the US “used to have.”

This approach was evident across the tour, during which Trump announced a string of bilateral trade agreements focused on tariff adjustments, technology transfers and access to critical minerals – all key to securing US supply chains and curbing Chinese influence.

Japan’s pivotal role

In Tokyo, his second stop, Trump met Emperor Naruhito and Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, signing a series of accords covering shipbuilding, technology cooperation and defense.

Washington also approved missile sales for Japan’s F-35 fighter jets, signaling deepening military coordination amid growing concerns about China’s naval and air buildup.

Fujisue called the US-Japan relationship “very good,” describing it as essential to counter the “huge threat” of China’s rapid military expansion.

“China is increasing its defense budget so rapidly ... this is a huge threat for Japan,” Fujisue said. “So, we should make an alliance with the US and other Asian countries.”

He added that Japan does not view Trump’s tariff policy as punitive but “a very good opportunity to make a good relationship with the US.”

For now, analysts view the Trump-Xi summit as a cautious reopening of dialogue rather than a breakthrough. While economic deals and diplomatic gestures dominate the headlines, the underlying competition – over technology, security and global leadership – remains tense.

Still, as Panda put it, the meeting “has opened a gateway” – one that could, if maintained, keep the world’s most consequential rivalry from sliding into deeper confrontation.