• US president has employed ‘classic carrot-and-stick strategy in dealings … blending threats with overtures of friendship,’ says University of London professor Inderjeet Parmar
• ‘Trump certainly gained more attention for America … yet much of this attention is negative,’ says Penn State professor Roseanne McManus
• ‘Trump is rewriting how the US works and what its priorities are,’ says David Andersen of Durham University

ISTANBUL

One year after President Donald Trump returned to the White House, the US has once again moved to the center of global attention, driven by a volatile mix of threats, deal-making and unpredictability that has reshaped Washington’s relations with allies and adversaries alike, analysts say.

“Trump has thrust America back into the global spotlight over the past year through his bombastic statements, outbursts, and policy decisions, including aggressive trade tariffs,” Inderjeet Parmar, a professor of international politics at the University of London, told Anadolu.

While the White House frames Trump’s approach as “peace through strength,” critics argue it has unsettled allies, weakened trust in US commitments and strained the rules-based international order.

Parmar said Trump’s return to power, combined with moves such as new tariffs on Chinese imports and withdrawal from international climate agreements, has reignited debates over US hegemony and the nature of American leadership.

That attention, analysts say, has come at a cost.

“Trump certainly gained more attention for America, even compared to the typical high level of attention. Yet I think much of this attention is negative, making the US appear imperialistic, indifferent to democracy and international law, and unreliable as an ally,” Roseanne McManus, professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University, told Anadolu.

Parmar agreed that the spotlight has led to growing strains between Washington and its traditional allies.

“It highlights fractures in alliances, as seen in strained NATO relations and EU retaliatory measures,” he said. “Trump’s tariffs, aimed at ‘America First,’ have sparked global economic volatility, affecting supply chains from Asia to Latin America.”

Carrot-and-stick diplomacy

Experts describe Trump’s foreign policy as a classic carrot-and-stick approach, pairing threats with incentives in rapid succession.

“It’s the classic carrot-and-stick strategy in dealings with nations like Ukraine, Russia, China, and recently Colombia, blending threats with overtures of friendship,” said Parmar.

Last year, Trump spoke positively about Russian President Vladimir Putin several times, telling reporters they had a “very good relationship,” and also hosted him for a summit in Alaska.

But at the same time, he warned him of “severe consequences” and more sanctions if Russia blocked a peace deal for Ukraine.

In Latin America, Trump has taken a comparable approach. Amid tensions with Colombia over migration and drug trafficking, he threatened border closures and economic pressure while offering cooperation and investment as incentives for compliance.

McManus said Trump’s deal-making instincts remain central to his strategy.

“He is eager for anything he can portray as a victory. This has led to gyrations from threats to cooperation with several countries, including Russia, China, and Colombia in this term and North Korea in his first term,” she said.

She added that Trump may even be open to making a deal with Iran, though whether such talks materialize remains uncertain.

Deliberate unpredictability?

Analysts say Trump’s unpredictability is not limited to rhetoric but is embedded in his policy agenda, which often shifts suddenly and without warning.

McManus pointed to US missile strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last summer, ordered after Trump publicly suggested he would take more time to consider military action.

“In negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, he has gone back and forth in support for one side or the other,” she added. “The operation in Venezuela was not wholly unexpected, but the timing was a surprise. I really did not expect his strategy of allowing officials below Maduro to remain in power.”

David Andersen, a professor of US politics at Durham University, sees Trump’s unpredictability as deliberate.

“He approaches politics in a unique way that defines him,” Andersen told Anadolu. “He is focused on results and is not constrained by facts, planning or norms of behavior. He simply decides what he wants and demands it. You simply cannot predict what he is going to want next, or what he will do to get it.”

Parmar said that unpredictability and perceived irrationality in foreign relations can be viewed as a deliberate tactic rather than mere chaos – though it carries profound risks.

“His abrupt shifts – praising Kim Jong Un one day, threatening ‘fire and fury’ the next – keep opponents off-balance.”

He said the approach is closely aligned with the “madman theory,” which is commonly associated with the foreign policy of former President Richard Nixon, who tried to make communist countries think he was unpredictable so as to avoid provoking the US in fear of an overblown response.

‘Rewriting how the US works’

As Trump enters the second year of his second term, analysts expect his foreign policy to remain confrontational and transactional.

“He will likely prioritize deals over alliances: renegotiating trade with China via tariffs, pressuring NATO on spending, and pursuing quick wins in Ukraine by brokering a Putin-favorable peace, potentially ceding territory,” Parmar said.

On Iran and the Middle East, Parmar predicted heightened rhetoric combined with efforts to avoid a full-scale war, alongside unequivocal support for Israel.

“Migration will drive hardline stances toward Mexico and Colombia, with threats of sanctions balanced by economic incentives. Climate and multilateral forums like the UN will face further US disengagement,” he said. “Unpredictability remains key, but with a GOP-controlled Congress, policies may harden – more tariffs, less aid.”

McManus said Trump appears more emboldened in his second term than in his first.

“This may be due to increasing confidence from experience or the fact that he is surrounded by advisers who are more ideologically aligned and less likely to rein him in,” she said. “I think the fact that the Venezuela operation went smoothly has further emboldened him, probably leading directly to recent threats against Greenland and Iran.”

For Andersen, whatever comes next is likely to be shocking and unprecedented.

“Trump is rewriting how the US works and what its priorities are,” he said. “We really have very little ability to predict what will happen next.”