- 'The bottom line will be whether Republican politicians will value Trump’s support more than Musk’s money,' John Owens, a professor at American University, tells Anadolu

- 'Trump has a massive history of falling out with people. But, he also has a history of them getting back with them,' says Tom Packer of the University College London

ISTANBUL

The heated public feud between two of America's most powerful figures – President Donald Trump and tech billionaire Elon Musk – may have fizzled out for now, but analysts say its fallout could still reshape federal agencies, domestic politics, and even US space exploration.

The rift began widening with Musk’s May 29 exit from the administration, when he left his role with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). A few days later, Musk started hitting out at Trump’s signature tax and spending bill, calling it “a disgusting abomination” and urging Americans to “kill the bill.”

When Trump eventually criticized the billionaire for opposing his One Big Beautiful Bill, Musk responded sharply with a series of critical posts on X, including a now-deleted reference to Trump’s past ties with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

But this Wednesday, Musk backed down, writing on X that he regretted his earlier criticisms, acknowledging that “some” of his posts had gone “too far.”

Trump commented on the apology in an interview with the New York Post later in the day, saying he has “no hard feelings.”

“I was really surprised that that happened. He went after a bill that’s phenomenal … When he did that, I was not a happy camper,” said the US president.

“I was disappointed in him, but you know it is what it is … Things like that happen. I don’t blame him for anything, but I was a little disappointed.”

Fallout threatens critical government agencies

The feud is not merely personal – its impact extends directly into government operations. Musk, who serves as CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, was appointed by Trump to head DOGE, a position designed to streamline government spending by cutting jobs and bureaucracy.

Musk resigned after approximately 130 days amid controversy over his methods and management style.

Experts suggest that growing hostility between Trump and Musk could severely affect federal agencies, notably NASA, which relies extensively on Musk’s SpaceX for essential space missions.

In a pointed warning, Trump publicly threatened to cut off Musk’s substantial government subsidies and contracts, estimated at around $22 billion.

Following Trump’s comments, Musk announced that SpaceX would begin retiring its Dragon spacecraft – a critical vehicle for delivering astronauts and supplies to the International Space Station (ISS) – before subsequently reversing the decision.

SpaceX also plays an integral role in NASA’s ambitious Artemis program, which aims to establish a permanent lunar presence and eventually send humans to Mars.

The Washington Post reported that, in the wake of the Trump-Musk feud, both NASA and Pentagon officials have begun rapidly turning to SpaceX’s competitors to expedite alternative rocket and spacecraft solutions.

The Pentagon, in particular, relies significantly on SpaceX to launch sensitive military satellites, according to the paper.

Another factor, according to Tom Packer, an honorary research fellow at University College London’s Institute of the Americas, behind Musk’s combative response may also be the rejection of his preferred candidate to head NASA.

He was referring to Jared Isaacman, a billionaire private astronaut who was backed by Musk to lead NASA, whose nomination was withdrawn by Trump on June 1, just days before his confirmation vote before the US Senate.

Impact on Trump’s Cabinet and Republican unity

At one point, Trump warned Musk of “very serious consequences” if he financially backs Democrats running against Republicans who oppose the sweeping tax bill.

Musk, who reportedly spent approximately $250 million to aid Trump’s successful 2024 election campaign, was the US president’s largest individual donor.

Trump reiterated the seriousness of his warning in a recent NBC News interview, stating cryptically, “He’ll have to pay very serious consequences if he does that,” though he refused to elaborate further.

Despite the fallout with Musk, Trump insists the Republican Party remains unified. Observers, however, suggest potential long-term political repercussions.

John Owens, a faculty fellow at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University, told Anadolu that the dispute is forcing Republicans, cryptocurrency advocates, right-wing pundits, and AI enthusiasts to take sides.

“The bottom line will be whether Republican politicians will value Trump’s support more than Musk’s money,” Owens said. “Unsurprisingly, polls show they choose the former, and many want Trump to punish Musk.”

Yet, despite Trump’s outward hostility, analysts note the president has remained relatively restrained given his past feuds.

Economic implications and geopolitical concerns

Economically, experts believe the dispute’s most immediate implications could impact Musk's companies, especially if Trump carries out his threat to cancel governmental subsidies or impose tariffs targeting Tesla.

Highlighting Musk’s business interests in China due to Tesla’s operations there, Packer said he was exercising caution toward the prospect of a full-blown trade war with Beijing.

In foreign policy, however, both Owens and Packer agree that the consequences will be limited, although Musk's involvement in providing Starlink services to Ukraine could pose issues. Musk has assured that he would never turn off Starlink terminals crucial for Ukraine’s military communications, despite personal disagreements over Ukrainian policies.

“Without Starlink, the Ukrainian lines would collapse, as the Russians can jam all other communications,” Musk recently posted on X.

Reconciliation and future prospects

Despite the heated exchanges, observers suggest reconciliation remains possible.

While Trump has publicly dismissed the idea of mending fences with Musk, experts like Packer say the president often prioritizes personal interests and practical benefits over past disagreements.

"Trump has a massive history of falling out with people. But, he also has a history of them getting back with them," said Packer, who explained that Trump tends to reserve lasting grudges to personal betrayals, such as his fallout with former Vice President Mike Pence. Policy disagreements — like that he had with Musk — rarely cause permanent hostility, he said.

Packer further noted that both Trump and Musk have shown restraint compared to their typical confrontational styles, indicating that both parties may yet seek a detente.

"He (Trump) has said one or two negative things about Elon, but he hasn’t completely written off. So, I think it’s striking how both of them are pulling their punches a bit by their standards," said Packer.

DOGE under scrutiny

Musk’s leadership of DOGE remains controversial, particularly the aggressive budget cuts and mass layoffs that critics say undermined essential government services.

“DOGE is a failure,” Owens said. He pointed out that cuts made under Musk’s leadership had a “severe impact on the ability of the federal government to function and, “most importantly, serve voters, many of whom voted for Trump.”

Packer agreed, also underlining the “huge political backlash” it unleashed. “DOGE hadn't saved that much money,” he said, adding that the amount of spending the agency prevented was miniscule compared to the “trillions and trillions” of dollars in the US federal budget.

Musk’s political future and implications for space policy

On Musk’s hints about forming a new political party, Packer dismissed such statements as posturing rather than realistic intentions.

“I just wouldn't take it very seriously, Musk's threats to form an alternative party," Packer said. “Musk is a big believer in sweeping back the size of government, so that voice will be weakened. But the truth is he basically lost that battle anyway, and in many ways, he showed himself not very politically savvy.”

Nevertheless, Musk’s political influence remains notable, he noted, given his close personal connections to figures like Vice President JD Vance, who has significant sway within Trump's administration, particularly over energy and space policy.

Who will emerge stronger?

Ultimately, analysts suggest Trump will likely emerge from the dispute relatively unscathed.

Owens emphasized that while it is too early to entirely rule out future reconciliation, the outcome of this spat will likely result in only one “winner.”

He highlighted Trump’s consistent ability to retain public support despite numerous high-profile feuds.

“More than anyone else, (Trump) can maintain a much higher level of public visibility” and exhibit loyalty to his own persona, said Owens.

“This is how it has worked out for anyone who has fallen out with Trump,” he added.