WASHINGTON

Syria’s political transition and efforts to integrate the YPG/SDF into a unified Syria were discussed at a panel in Washington, DC, where experts voiced optimism that recent developments could strengthen stability if managed carefully.

The event, titled “Syria at a Turning Point: Integration, Stability, and State Authority,” was hosted by the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) in Washington and moderated by SETA DC’s research director Kilic Bugra Kanat.

‘Core architecture’ agreed months earlier

Charles Lister, a senior fellow and director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said the basis of the Jan. 30 deal between the Syrian government and the YPG/SDF had been reached well before it was made public.

“In around mid-October, there was a comprehensive agreement between the SDF and Damascus in front of the American and French mediators,” he said, adding that “all of the core architecture” of the Jan. 30 deal had already been agreed but not signed.

Lister said the perception within the US government was that “the SDF was struggling internally to commit” to the agreement.

Clashes in early January were followed by a ceasefire, with several districts in Aleppo coming under government control with “very minimal casualties” and “very fast progress,” he noted.

“In the space of 36 hours, the SDF lost about 70% of its fighting force through public defections, mostly by tribal forces,” and within roughly 48 hours lost “about 80% of their revenue generating assets, predominantly oil.”

According to Lister, these developments ultimately paved the way for formalizing the agreement at the end of January.

Despite concerns about what “full integration into the state and a submission of authority” could look like in the coming months, Lister said Syria is now in an “optimistic position” compared to where it stood previously.

‘Newfound freedom of expression’

Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 “cannot be overestimated” in terms of reshaping regional power dynamics.

Following a visit to Damascus in November, she said she was struck by “this newfound freedom of expression” and “the ability for people to say what they think,” describing the atmosphere as “a very different Syria” from previous years.

At the same time, she stressed that ensuring inclusivity remains key.

“A critical challenge going forward remains how to ensure buy-in from various elements of Syrian society,” she said, pointing to Kurds, Druze, Alawites and even Sunni communities who “do not feel 100% included in this new transition government.”

Yacoubian described herself as “guardedly optimistic,” noting: “It’s quite something that we haven’t actually seen much more violence…as this integration effort moves forward.”

Regional shift, need for coordination

Former US Ambassador to Türkiye and former Special Envoy for Syria James Jeffrey framed developments within a broader regional transformation.

“We are facing not only a dramatically different Syria, but a dramatically different Middle East,” he said, describing the current trajectory as a “victory” that “can be lost over time.”

Jeffrey argued that recalibrating the SDF’s role may now make integration more sustainable.

“It’s now small enough to succeed, and it has to succeed. This agreement…has to succeed,” he said.

He stressed that continued international coordination is essential, warning that a unified approach by regional and global actors is preferable to competing policies.

Jeffrey also underlined the importance of continued US engagement on the ground, saying implementation “goes better with US troops on the ground.”

Türkiye’s security concerns, integration seen as key

Kadir Ustun, executive director at SETA Washington, said the agreement between the YPG/SDF and the Syrian government is “very crucial for the territorial integrity of Syria” and also for addressing longstanding Turkish security concerns.

“You can’t really do the ISIS (Daesh) fight with the PKK in the medium to long run,” he said, arguing that once ISIS was largely defeated, it became harder to define a new mission for the SDF.

He added that the recent integration agreement also coincides with an internal political process in Türkiye aimed at ending the PKK threat, stressing that Ankara never viewed developments in northeastern Syria as separate from its own national security.