HOUSTON, United States
It has been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine and the numbers associated with the war are staggering: millions of people displaced from their homes and hundreds of thousands dead or wounded on both sides of the battlefield, including verified civilian casualties of 30,457 with at least 10,582 killed, according to the UN.
As the Ukraine War carries on, the US House of Representatives has yet to take a vote on a $95.3 billion funding package passed by the Senate two weeks ago, $60 billion of which would provide defense aid for Ukraine.
"If people want to see Ukraine do well against Russia and eventually win the war, then Ukraine needs support from the US government," said Richard Stoll, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston, Texas, who specializes in international relations.
Stoll told Anadolu that the current stalemate in Congress is not necessarily about the Ukraine War itself but rather an overall battle between Republicans and Democrats about funding the government at such a high level.
"I think it's pretty clear what is happening on the battlefield- Ukraine has a serious shortage of artillery shells and has had to cut back significantly. They need funding," said Stoll.
"However, some lawmakers are saying, 'It's not that I'm against funding Ukraine, but there are domestic issues that deserve higher attention,'" he continued, pointing to funding shortages within the US military and funding issues related to combating the illegal immigration crisis at the US-Mexico border.
According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted at the end of January, 74% of Americans viewed the war between Ukraine and Russia as being important to US national interests, roughly the same as they viewed the war between Israel and Hamas (75%) and tensions between China and Taiwan (75%).
Despite the majority of Americans seeing the Ukraine War as being important, Stoll told Anadolu that most Americans do not see it as a priority.
"I think support has been fading for Ukraine because most of the time for Americans, it's domestic issues that strike them directly and immediately affect them," he said, referring to a Gallup poll taken in January, which showed that international issues take a backseat to domestic issues.
Overall, 34% of Americans see economic problems, such as inflation and the US economy, as the most important issues facing them, according to the poll, which showed very few Americans seeing international problems as being important: situation with Russia (1%), situation with China (1%), situation with the Middle East (2%), war or fear of war (2%), and foreign policy (2%).
"It is extremely rare for the American public to see any kind of international situation as being a big deal," said Stoll. "Not that international issues won't get raised, but most of the time, what the American public is concerned about are domestic issues because they have the biggest impact on them."
Regardless of the chess match that is being played out between Republicans and Democrats, Stoll believes Congress needs to work out a bipartisan plan to pass the $95 billion funding package, which includes the crucial $60 billion in funding for Ukraine.
"We're coming up on a funding deadline. If Congress doesn't come up with these funds, there could be a government shutdown," Stoll explained, with the deadlines of March 1 and March 8 being the crucial dates on which funding needs to be approved in order to prevent federal services from coming to a halt nationwide.
Stoll believes the Ukraine aid will eventually be passed in the overall funding package, which also includes $14 billion in defense aid for Israel in the war versus Hamas, $9 billion for humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza, the West Bank and Ukraine, and $4.8 billion to support allies in the Indo-Pacific region. But he also pointed out that continued funding of Ukraine could cause other problems down the road.
"The longer the US actively supports Ukraine, it could lead to more tension and fear of the possibility of war between the US and Russia," said Stoll, who added that how the Ukraine war pans out could determine how the rest of the world sees Russia as a global superpower.
"If the war turns out in Russia's favor, there will be some places in Europe that say, 'if Russia wants certain things, then we should comply, because if we oppose Russia, look what happens, we get invaded. Even if Russia doesn't take over our country, we'll pay a heavy price,'" said Stoll.
On the flip side, he believes that Russia's dominance as a world military leader will be questioned if they come out on the losing end.
"Externally, other countries will say, 'Well, Russia is not that powerful, so we don't have to worry too much about them,'" Stoll continued, which is why he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin will continue his offensive in Ukraine.
"The argument I'm hearing is that it's all or nothing for Putin, that he needs to either win or keep going," said Stoll. "Because if Putin stops now, it's going to look like he lost, so he needs to keep going so there won't be internal strife within the Russian government about whether he should be their leader."
"It doesn't mean Putin will never decide to stop. He may still declare victory and say, 'We've shown Ukrainians that if they say things against us, they will pay the price,'" Stoll continued. "Putin is concerned about the international standing of Russia as a superpower if the war drags on or if he doesn't prevail."
For now, the war continues to drag on, and with no clear end in sight, the number of casualties will rise even further as the war between Russia and Ukraine pushes into its third year.
