• Choosing a leader with economic expertise ‘was exactly the right move for the Liberals, and Carney ‘struck while the iron was hot’ with election call, says Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant, head of the Canadian Opinion Research Archive at Queen’s University

• Poilievre and the Conservatives are floundering as they are ‘not focusing enough on Trump, the US, and the trade war,’ says Goodyear-Grant

TRENTON, Canada 

As Canada heads toward a snap federal election on April 28, three men – Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre, and Jagmeet Singh – are vying to lead the country.

But for all their political pitches and promises to sway voters, one issue looms supreme: Donald Trump.

“Trump and Canada-US relations are a huge part of this campaign,” said Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant, professor of political science and head of the Canadian Opinion Research Archive at Queen’s University.

The big question for all is how to handle the US president, she said, suggesting that it has to be done “carefully and with strength.”

“Trump has a track record of bullying and generally turning his back on diplomatic norms. It is a challenging task,” she said.

That task has grown more urgent with Trump’s increasingly adversarial posture toward Canada. The mercurial president has declared his desire to “make Canada the 51st state,” while slapping punishing tariffs on Canadian imports in what he calls a “reciprocal” trade policy.

The resulting trade war, while economically disruptive, has had an unexpected political effect, jolting the electoral fortunes of Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party.

Just weeks ago, the Liberals were trailing far behind Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, battered by voter fatigue after nearly a decade in power and weighed down by the unpopularity of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Trudeau, who Goodyear-Grant pointed out had become a “polarizing figure,” stepped down in January under pressure from party and public after almost 10 years in office.

The Liberals then turned to Carney, a globally respected economist who once helmed both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.

“Renewal of leadership can often bump parties’ fortune,” Goodyear-Grant told Anadolu. “In this case, choosing a leader with a deeply impressive resume on economic matters was exactly the right move for the Liberals.”

The Trump factor has only amplified Carney’s appeal. His track record steering Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and later guiding Britain during the economic upheaval of Brexit has lent him credibility at a time when cross-border tensions dominate the national conversation.

“Under conditions of external economic threat, voters potentially become risk-averse and more likely to prefer an incumbent government … (and) Carney’s track record and expertise are very attractive right now,” she added.

Can the Liberal surge hold?

Just weeks before election day, the Liberals’ surge appears real, with the latest Nanos Research public poll showing them at 43% support, ahead of the Conservatives at 38.1%.

Singh’s New Democratic Party – unable to break through nationally and mired in third place for several election cycles – sits at 8.9%, while three smaller parties have failed to register double-digit support.

Goodyear-Grant believes Carney seized the momentum with a well-timed snap election, taking advantage of a “honeymoon” period after winning the Liberal leadership race: “The polls were right and he struck while the iron was hot.”

Poilievre and the Conservatives are floundering as they are “sticking to their playbook and not focusing enough on Trump, the US, and the trade war,” she said.

Poilievre has also struggled to regain control of the narrative since Trudeau’s departure, as the fiery Conservative leader spent years building his brand around being “anti-Trudeau,” she added.

“With his rival or enemy gone, this is a problem because Poilievre built so much of his leadership persona around being anti-Trudeau. I’m not sure Poilievre can recover,” said Goodyear-Grant.

“The momentum is with the Liberals, and leaks from inside the Poilievre campaign tell of discord and chaos internally.”

‘Carney has the edge’

Both Carney and Poilievre have sought to project strength in the face of Trump’s threats. Poilievre has leaned into a nationalist “Canada First” message, while Carney has positioned himself as the steady, competent technocrat best equipped to manage relations with Washington.

“I would have to pick Carney. No one could touch him on economic experience and he is also projecting an unwavering stance of strength against the US,” Goodyear-Grant said when asked who voters are likely to see as the best leader to deal with Trump.

“In the phone call between him and Trump last week, there were subtle signs too that Trump respects him more than he did, say Trudeau. Poilievre is also projecting strength toward the US with the ‘Canada First’ idea and his rhetoric too, but I think Carney has the edge.”

Carney has also taken aim at key planks of the Conservative platform, including the consumer carbon tax and housing affordability – both issues with broad appeal to middle-class voters.

“Carney promises to nix the tax and … announced he would create a new federal housing entity as part of his promise to substantially boost housing creation,” Goodyear-Grant said.

For now, all eyes remain on the US president – who, while not on Canada’s ballot, looms large over its political landscape. Voters may not be choosing Trump, but they will be choosing how their next prime minister deals with him.

“Carney and the Liberals are doing great, looking strong on trade and Canada-US relations,” said Goodyear-Grant. “This is resonating because Canada-US relations are at the top of the agenda.”