- The Sudanese Armed Forces command about 60% of Sudan’s territory, while the Rapid Support Forces and its allies control roughly 40%, says Sudanese researcher and analyst Jihad Mashamoun

- ‘Kordofan has emerged as the new frontline in the struggle for territorial control due to its strategic importance,’ says ACLED's senior analyst Jalale Getachew Birru

ISTANBUL 

The war in Sudan, now grinding through its third year, has become one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises — and one of its most entrenched.

With intermittent offensives and shifting battle lines, the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has claimed more than 20,000 lives and displaced over 15 million people, according to UN and local estimates, while territories remain divided between the rival sides.

Analyst Jihad Mashamoun describes the war as a constant exchange of control rather than a campaign with clear victories.

“It’s a give-and-take situation in many areas,” he told Anadolu. “For the past few months there have been technical reversals between both sides – when the army went and had some progress, the RSF returns; when the RSF loses ground, the army takes it back.”

He cited the town of Umm Sumeima, west of El-Obeid, as one such example – first held by the SAF, then seized by the RSF, and retaken again by government forces in September.

According to local news outlet Sudans Post, the SAF currently controls the eastern, northern, and central parts of the country, including the states of Khartoum, Al-Jazira, White Nile, Kassala, Gedaref, River Nile, Red Sea, and Sennar. Mashamoun estimates that the army commands about 60% of Sudan’s territory, while the RSF and its allies control roughly 40%.

North Sudan, he said, is completely under the government of the armed forces, along with East Sudan, while central Sudan is “completely liberated” with no presence of the RSF.

He added that most of southern Sudan – including the Blue Nile and White Nile regions – is 95% under SAF control. In Darfur, areas north of El-Fasher remain aligned with the army and allied movements that ended their neutrality and joined the fight in 2023.

Mashamoun said Khartoum and its twin cities, Bahri and Omdurman, have been “completely cleared of the RSF and overall controlled by the Sudanese armed forces and allied forces since May 2025.”

Jalale Getachew Birru, East Africa senior analyst at global monitor Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), confirmed that the capital is relatively stable but fragile.

“Compared to last year, the situation in Khartoum has stabilized to some extent, with the SAF-led government attempting to restore normalcy – for instance, by reopening the airport,” she said.

“However, since June 2025, the Sudan-Libya-Egypt border triangle has been controlled by the RSF. This area is a vital economic and border crossing point, allowing for the flow of trade and goods, and is rich in natural resources."

The SAF also controls El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, which it retook in February 2025. But with the fall of El-Fasher to the RSF, analysts warn the army could face renewed pressure from the west.

RSF atrocities in Darfur

The RSF remains entrenched in Darfur, where it now controls four of the region’s five states.

Mashamoun noted that the RSF’s influence is strongest in its heartland of East Darfur and extends westward to the Chadian border, while also including South Darfur and major urban areas in North Darfur.

Rights groups have accused the RSF of committing atrocities during its months-long siege of the city, including massacres, looting, and the targeting of hospitals. According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 62,000 people have fled the area since its fall.

“Unfortunately, what we’re witnessing now is the deliberate targeting of civilians,” said Mashamoun. “The RSF believes these populations are aligned with the army, and they are punishing them collectively. The group operates without discipline or command structure – its only consistency is in looting, killing, and destruction.”

He added that the RSF relied on foreign mercenaries and advanced weaponry during the siege. “The city withstood more than 200 attacks before falling. What’s happening now is the result of total impunity. The RSF ignores international calls to lift sieges and cease attacks.”

Battle for Kordofan

Analysts now describe Kordofan as Sudan’s next major battlefield. The region’s northern and western zones are divided between the two sides, and both understand its strategic value. “Kordofan has emerged as the new frontline in the struggle for territorial control due to its strategic importance,” said Birru.

According to Mashamoun, the army is now focused on reclaiming greater Kordofan before turning west toward Darfur. “The SAF aims to cut off RSF supply lines and close the western corridor from Chad. The army may also coordinate with allied movements in northern Sudan and mobilize troops from the Sudan-Chad border to strengthen its offensive,” he said.

“The RSF has been using Kordofan to launch drone and artillery attacks toward Khartoum and Port Sudan,” he added. “Recapturing towns like Bara and Nuhud will be key to halting those attacks.”

The RSF claimed in late October that it had seized Bara in North Kordofan, forcing more than 4,500 residents to flee amid reports of widespread abuses. The town lies close to El-Obeid, the region’s strategic capital, now firmly held by the army but increasingly encircled by the RSF.

As both sides consolidate territorial control, Sudan’s humanitarian catastrophe deepens. Over 25 million people – half the population – now need urgent aid, according to the UN. Famine is looming across Darfur, Kordofan, and parts of Khartoum, while health services and education systems have collapsed.

Mashamoun warned that the country is trapped in a destructive stalemate, stressing that the RSF operates without “a clear command and control structure.”

“In terms of strategy, I don’t see much of a strategy, more than focusing on looting civilian homes and killing civilians now,” he added.