Analysis, Africa

OPINION - Is it too late for peaceful reconciliation in Ethiopian crisis?

One year on, Ethiopia is crumbling under multifaced internal conflicts

Sadik Kedir Abdu  | 04.11.2021 - Update : 04.11.2021
OPINION - Is it too late for peaceful reconciliation in Ethiopian crisis? File Photo

The writer is a Ph.D. student at Ankara University Faculty of Communication, Anadolu Agency correspondent

ANKARA

Ethiopia, home to over 110 million people, has been dragged into a multifaceted internal conflict, particularly in its northern region.

These conflicts have reportedly left thousands dead, although official figures are yet to be revealed.

Last November, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed launched a "law enforcement operation" declaring that the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), a rebel group, attacked its northern base, which is located in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia.

The central government strictly said that this was an operation that will end in a matter of weeks, but a year on, the conflict has spilled over to other parts of the central Amhara region, with TPLF claiming control of the strategic cities of Dessie and Kombolcha, approximately 400 kilometers (248.5 miles) away from the capital Addis Ababa.

On the other hand, the Ethiopian government says there are some insurgents including foreign mercenaries in the region, and TPLF does not have full control over the cities.

In recent weeks, the Ethiopian government has carried out repeated airstrikes on TPLF hideouts. But the rebel group claims the strikes targeted civilians.

On Nov. 1, the Ethiopian government said that TPLF killed 150 civilians in Kombolcha, but this claim was later rebuffed by TPLF spokesman Getachew Reda.

Home to over 80 different ethnicities, once the stable and exemplary East African nation is now under the threat of disintegration due to an extremely antagonist political rhetoric.

As of late, the Ethiopian government has announced a nationwide state of emergency.


Humanitarian, economic crisis

Currently, over 5 million people need immediate humanitarian assistance, with 2 million internally displaced. Some 60,000 people have fled to refugee camps in neighboring Sudan, according to the UN.

Since the re-escalation in the past two months, complaints of disruption of transportation, skyrocketing prices of utility items, energy shortages and closure of day-to-day government activities have been reported.

With the ongoing conflict, the Ethiopian economy is also collapsing. The government, particularly the northern Amhara region, has allocated the regional budget to finance the war.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has set inflation at 25%, while Fitch, Moody's and S&P have revised the Ethiopian status downwards to the lowest grade, pushing credits away.

US President Joe Biden on Nov. 2 ordered the termination of Ethiopia's AGOA funding, a lucrative trade program, by Jan. 1, 2022.

Background

For nearly 30 years, TPLF now designated as a terrorist organization by the federal government of Ethiopia, was the dominant group leading the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Front (EPRDF) coalition, comprising the Oromian People Democratic Organization (OPDO), Amhara People Democratic Movement (ANDM) and the Southern Ethiopian People's Democratic Movement (SEPDM).

This coalition was accused of corruption, mal-governance, rigging election and suppression of voices against its administration. Especially, the 2005 general election marked the open killing and mass arrest of civilians, politicians, journalists, and human rights activists across the country, according to many international rights groups, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International.

Waves of public dissatisfaction and protests due to the prevailing human rights violations, political oppression, and systemic economic corruption were the main driving forces that led to the resignation of the former Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and the rise to power of incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

In 2018, Abiy was elected as the interim prime minister and made surprising moves leading him to win the Nobel peace prize in 2019. Political prisoners, journalists, religious leaders were freed from prison. More importantly, he astonished the world by announcing an end to 20 years of bitter relations with neighboring Eritrea which had claimed at least 80,000 lives on both sides.

This created a blossoming hope for a bright future among Ethiopian citizens.

Abiy's move to restructure the EPRDF to Prosperity Party (PP) has caused backlash with strong criticism from veteran politicians like Jawar Mohammed, Bekele Gerba and Lidetu Ayalew.

Jawar Mohammed, one of the motors of the 2018 change, was imprisoned by the government after the assassination of Haccaluu Hundessa, a renowned Oromo singer.

Bekele Gerba, Eskindir Nega, and other prominent politicians have also been arrested for their critical views against the newly formed government. After PP's formation, TPLF officially left the coalition and made its way to Mekele, the capital of the Tigray region, and center of the conflict. In a defiant move, TPLF held a regional election and won popular vote.

In 2021, Abiy Ahmed also won an election with popular vote. After he assumed office, the conflict has intensified with TPLF alleging advancement to other regions.



Implications of the conflict in the region

Experts say that Ethiopia was on its way to becoming the superpower of the region. But the country was hit by internal conflicts -- Oromia Liberation Front (OLF) in the west and TPLF in the north.

After leaders of the Oromia Liberation Army, an offshoot of OLF and once a designated terrorist group, were arrested, they took up arms against the government forces which are controlling some parts of the Oromia region according to their sources.

Various International organizations, including the UN, have called for an unconditional cease-fire between warring parties.

The US and EU have threatened sanctions, with Washington imposing an arms embargo on Ethiopia and its neighbor Eritrea.

Ethiopia is a strategic ally of the West in combatting terrorism in the region, including Al-Shabaab and some factions of Al-Qaeda and Daesh/ISIS.

Moreover, the displacement of a big population like Ethiopia will be a major crisis not only in the region, but the world.

Since the start of the crisis, humanitarian groups such as Doctors Without Borders has tried to reach out to people in the conflict areas. But the government stopped aid workers from entering the region, and even expelled seven UN staff alleging they are cooperating with TPLF.

The ongoing dispute over a dam on Nile with Egypt and a border issue with Sudan have made matters worse. Some experts say the continued lobbying of Egypt has changed perceptions in the media against the Ethiopian government.

Is there room for a peaceful settlement?

In a politically instigated war, the Ethiopian social fabric and essence of living together are being threatened now more than ever.

The war, sanctions, political rhetoric all use civilians as collateral damage. By calling it an all-out war, both warring parties play on the blood of society.

Sometime before Nov. 4, 2020, which marks the start of the conflict, Abiy formed a team of reconciliation -- a move which was rejected by TPLF leaders.

The TPLF condemns Abiy for inviting Eritrea to war, while the prime minister claims foreign fighters are supporting TPLF.

Both parties are against peaceful settlement. In recent remarks, Abiy called upon the people of Ethiopia to bury TPLF once and for all. Gen. Tsadqan Geberetensay, top military strategist of TPLF, has also said that the "time for negotiation has passed."

Politics is negotiation but the terms are written by the upper hand.

There will always be room for talks and negotiations. If not, it can be created for the sake of public good.


* Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency

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