- Doumbouya’s victory widely anticipated, high voter turnout ‘will strengthen the legitimacy’ of the interim leader, Aissatou Kante of the Institute for Security Studies tells Anadolu
- Without post-election structural reforms in justice, governance, and socio-economic development, Guinea risks returning to its cycle of institutional crises, the expert warns
ISTANBUL
Guinea is set to hold its first presidential election since the 2021 coup on Sunday, marking a key step in the country’s transition back to constitutional rule.
Some 6.7 million registered voters will go to the polls from 7 am to 6 pm local time (GMT).
The vote follows a constitutional referendum this September, which set the stage for a return to civilian rule and made it possible for interim President Gen. Mamadi Doumbouya, 41, to stand as a candidate.
Doumbouya, a special-forces commander with foreign service experience, led a bloodless coup on Sept. 5, 2021, removing President Alpha Conde from office. He is widely expected to win the contest.
Conde, 87, had secured a third term in 2020 following a controversial constitutional change amid widespread public dissatisfaction and economic challenges.
The coup ushered in a transition that has shaped the field for Sunday’s election, where nine contenders are on the ballot, though some of the West African country’s longstanding political figures are absent.
The path toward civilian rule has faced criticism, as progress on the 24-month transition pledged with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 2022 fell far behind schedule.
“Repeated delays and the lack of clarity surrounding the calendar deepened public doubts and fueled perceptions of a unilateral handling of the transition by the authorities,” Aissatou Kante, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), told Anadolu.
In recent months, however, particularly since April’s announcement of the constitutional referendum date, the authorities in the country rich in mineral resources have accelerated the transition timetable, she said, establishing the electoral register, preparing poll logistics and materials, and conducting a public awareness campaign on the new Constitution, which was adopted ahead of the presidential vote.
Election under new Constitution
Guinea's new Constitution sets out key changes, including a seven-year presidential term instead of six with one possible renewal, residency and age requirements for candidates, the option for independents to run, and the creation of a bicameral legislature with both a Senate and a National Assembly.
Kante said it replaces the Transition Charter, which barred transitional government members from running, allowing Doumbouya and some members of the National Transitional Council (CNT) to stand as candidates.
The electoral process is being overseen by the General Directorate of Elections, under the Territorial Administration and Decentralization Ministry, alongside the Independent National Observatory for Referendums and Elections (ONASUR), whose leadership was named by a presidential decree.
The expert said the new electoral code favors Doumbouya as it requires independent candidates to obtain endorsements from at least 30% of mayors in 70% of municipalities. The dissolution of municipal councils has left special delegation presidents, appointed by his National Committee of the Rally for Development (CNRD), in place of elected mayors.
Presidential contenders and current political environment
Several prominent political figures are absent from the race, including former President Conde of the Rally of the Guinean People (RPG Arc-en-ciel), who exceeded the age limit of 80, Sidya Toure of the Union of Republican Forces (UFR), and Cellou Dalein Diallo of the suspended Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG), both of whom are in exile.
Former Prime Minister Lansana Kouyate and former minister Ousmane Kaba were also excluded from the ballot.
In their absence, Doumbouya is contesting the election against eight other candidates who are largely unknown to the public or have limited political mobilization capacity.
His competitors include former ministers Abdoulaye Yero Balde, Hadja Makale Camara, and Ibrahima Abe Sylla.
According to Kante, Doumbouya’s position as interim president also affords him advantages beyond his military background.
“He enjoys a relatively positive image among part of the population, that of a ‘builder’ who has delivered visible results in just a few years.”
The expert said this image sets him apart from traditional politicians, who are often seen as “eloquent but reluctant” to deliver on their promises, casting him instead as a “man of action than a man of words.”
This perception helps explain the growing support for his candidacy in recent months, including within the CNRD and the government even before his bid was formally announced, she said, adding that he can also rely on backing from both the central and territorial administrations, where many positions are held by military personnel.
Campaign atmosphere, implications
While elections in Guinea have traditionally been marked by tension, Kante explained, the current presidential campaign has unfolded in a relatively calm atmosphere, largely due to the “absence of genuine political competition.”
She said a similar situation was observed during September’s constitutional referendum, which faced boycott calls from parts of the political class and civil society but still saw 86% of registered voters turn out.
Kante noted that there are few signs the situation will change for the presidential election, with major political figures absent from the race, none issuing voter guidance, and the authorities, as during the referendum, relying on a substantial security presence to oversee the process.
“This presidential election carries little significance,” said the expert, as Doumbouya’s victory is widely anticipated. “The main issue lies more in the voter turnout, which, if high, will strengthen the legitimacy of the incumbent president.”
The main stake of the presidential election is to help break Guinea’s cycle of often-violent electoral conflicts – a goal underscored by the relatively calm September referendum, according to Kante.
She said that the situation so far shows no signs of change, even amid limited agreement on the process and ongoing constraints on political and civic space.
Challenges and the road ahead
According to Kante, the candidates’ visions show the need to put Guinea “on the path to stability,” recalling that the 2021 coup unfolded amid popular demand against past abuses, including corruption, poor governance, and the manipulation of elections along ethnic and regional lines.
The expert cautioned that the recent wave of coups in West Africa highlights how governance “characterized by clientelism, corruption, and authoritarianism” can lead to further disruptions of constitutional order.
In this context, implementing key structural reforms in justice, governance, and socio-economic development to lay the foundation for lasting stability is a “crucial post-election priority,” she added.
“Without such reforms, Guinea risks falling back into the cycle of institutional crises.”
Kante said returning to constitutional order is a “pivotal moment,” requiring sustained attention from all stakeholders, including post-election dialogue to reopen democratic space and ensure future legislative and local elections are inclusive, transparent, and credible.
The expert also noted that the transitional government recently reaffirmed Guinea’s political sovereignty in managing its electoral processes, particularly their financing, emphasizing that “the perception of the role of foreign powers should be guided by the principle of non-interference.”
Guinea’s strategic position as a major global bauxite producer, combined with the authorities’ “geopolitical pragmatism” in a multipolar environment, allows the country to safeguard its economic and political interests, she said.
While expressing solidarity with their Sahelian counterparts, Guinean authorities have avoided direct antagonism with foreign powers, largely sidestepping regional influence struggles by balancing partnerships with Western nations, such as France, alongside China and Russia, and Türkiye, she said.
