EXPLAINER – South Africa’s coalition government is in crisis, but will it collapse?

JOHANNESBURG

A year into its historic term, South Africa’s multiparty Government of National Unity (GNU) faces a mounting threat of collapse as tensions intensify between its two largest coalition partners.

The Democratic Alliance (DA), the coalition’s second-largest party, and the African National Congress (ANC), the largest and historically dominant political force currently led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, are increasingly at odds.

Their escalating dispute now threatens the stability of the unity government established last June, when the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years.

DA leader John Steenhuisen expressed outrage last weekend after Ramaphosa removed DA official Andrew Whitfield from his Cabinet, stripping him of the post of deputy minister of trade and industry.

Ramaphosa justified Whitfield’s dismissal by stating he took an international trip without obtaining necessary permission. Steenhuisen, however, sees this as a calculated political maneuver against his party.

“The DA has resolved to withdraw from the national dialogue with immediate effect,” Steenhuisen said at a media briefing, referring to Ramaphosa’s recently launched initiative aimed at tackling critical national challenges such as poverty, unemployment, inflation, and crime.

“Frankly, the president cannot even dialogue meaningfully with his own coalition partners, so there is little point in pretending there is any substance to an ANC-run national dialogue,” he added.

Will the coalition collapse?

Steenhuisen, who serves as agriculture minister in Ramaphosa’s Cabinet, last week issued a 48-hour ultimatum for the president to dismiss ANC ministers accused of corruption, warning of consequences otherwise. The deadline passed without action.

In response, Ramaphosa insisted in a statement that Steenhuisen and the DA have no reasonable grounds to issue ultimatums regarding his constitutional authority to appoint or remove ministers.

On Tuesday, the DA intensified the standoff, voting against a budget presented by Education Minister Nobuhle Nkabane, an ANC member accused by the DA of misleading parliament.

The party vowed to oppose other ANC-led ministry budgets tainted by corruption allegations.

Despite escalating tensions, Deputy President Paul Mashatile dismissed concerns about the DA’s budget votes as misplaced.

“The budget is not an instrument of a minister. A budget is for the nation. Even if there is a minister of the DA, that is not their budget. That budget is to help the people, so we, as the ANC, will vote for all budgets,” Mashatile told reporters in the Free State province on Tuesday.

He added that the ANC would defeat any no-confidence motion against Ramaphosa introduced by the DA.

ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula has also asserted that the GNU would remain intact, even if the DA withdraws.

Most political analysts similarly believe the GNU will survive these current disputes. Independent political analyst Dale McKinley described the coalition frictions as largely driven by internal politics within each party.

“What is happening is a symbolic tit-for-tat where each party is speaking ‘big’ to its constituents to be seen acting strong,” McKinley told Anadolu.

He argued that the DA’s withdrawal from the national dialogue is unlikely to have a significant impact. “We have had two or three other national dialogues in the past 20-30 years and they haven’t resulted in much. It’s not an essential component of governance – it’s a symbolic withdrawal. It will even hurt the DA by withdrawing because its voice will not be heard in the process.”

‘DA will not leave unless kicked out’

Dirk Kotze, a political science professor at the University of South Africa, agrees that the GNU will likely remain stable.

“The DA has made it clear it will only leave when the ANC kicks it out. The ANC doesn’t have many options except to work with the DA,” Kotze said.

He said that if the DA is kicked out of the GNU, they will withdraw their coalition arrangement with the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, and former President Jacob Zuma’s MK Party would take control there, which the ANC definitely wants to avoid.

Kotze described current tensions as rooted in the DA feeling sidelined in government decisions. “From the DA’s point of view ... they are saying the ANC very often ignores them in decision-making,” he noted.

The DA says the ANC cannot govern without them and must share power, and that is the difference of opinion that exists between them at the moment, he added.

Early elections not possible

On whether the GNU’s collapse could trigger fresh elections, Kotze clarified this scenario is constitutionally impossible at present.

“There can’t be an early election because the constitution does not allow for an early election for the first three years after an election has been held,” Kotze explained.

Political analyst Edwin Yingi criticized the DA’s stance as contradictory.

“To me, it doesn’t make sense. How do they walk away from the national dialogue and remain in the GNU?” he questioned.

He emphasized that neither the ANC nor the DA wants to be blamed for the GNU’s collapse. “The ANC is not prepared to take responsibility for the crumbling of the GNU, neither is the DA,” Yingi said, predicting the two parties will eventually reconcile as they have in previous disagreements.

“They will likely soon overcome their differences, like they did before, but only time will tell.”