- She says, 'given Guinea-Bissau's deeply divided and factionalized military, a countercoup could occur'
- Uganda-based security analyst Freddie David Egesa attributes President Umaro Sissoco Embalo's overthrow to 'deep state'
KIGALI, Rwanda
Military officials installed a new transition leader in Guinea-Bissau on Thursday, a day after seizing power in the latest military coup, which could face stiff opposition in the small West African nation on the Atlantic coast.
The day before, a group of military officers identifying themselves as the "High Military Command for the Restoration of National Security and Public Order" announced on state television that they had "assumed full powers of the state" and deposed President Umaro Sissoco Embalo.
On Thursday, the High Military Command appointed Gen. Horta Inta-A as transitional president for one year.
The bloodless coup took place as independent candidate Fernando Dias and Embalo's camps claimed victory in the Nov. 23 presidential election, while the country awaited official results.
The coup leaders justified their takeover by claiming that it was in response to the uncovering of a plot to "destabilize" Guinea-Bissau, which included an "operational scheme" by national politicians, a "well-known drug baron," nationals and foreigners, and attempts to manipulate election results.
The military officers stated that the state intelligence service discovered the plan, which included a cache of war weapons.
The military takeover came after reports of gunfire near the presidential palace. However, there were no reports of any casualties.
Embalo, 53, who fled to Senegal on Thursday, faced a legitimacy crisis before the coup, according to observers.
Embalo, a former army general, was first elected in 2019 with the support of the Madem G15 coalition of political parties.
Coup staged to prevent Embalo from losing the poll?
Guinea-Bissau has experienced numerous coups and coup attempts since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974.
However, Beverly Ochieng, a senior analyst in Control Risks' Global Risk Analysis who has been monitoring Guinea-Bissau for years, believes that the credibility of this coup is in doubt, given that it was orchestrated by military officers perceived to be Embalo's allies.
"Some believe that the coup was staged to prevent Embalo from losing the election. It enables the military to consolidate power. So, it is not unlikely that Embalo will return as the head of this junta or run for office at the end of the transition," Ochieng told Anadolu.
About half of Guinea-Bissau's 2.2 million population was eligible to vote in the elections, according to the national electoral body.
Brig. Gen. Denis N'Canha, the army officer who led the coup, had previously served as head of the presidential guard.
N'Canha announced on state television that army officers had formed "the High Military Command for the Restoration of Order." He said the High Military Command decided to depose the republic's president immediately and suspend all Guinea-Bissau institutions until new orders were issued.
Following the coup, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) suspended Guinea-Bissau from its decision-making bodies on Thursday.
Earlier on Wednesday, the Bissau-Guinean civil society coalition, Frente Popular, or Popular Front, accused Embalo and the army of staging a coup to prevent the release of election results.
The coalition claimed that his move was intended to prevent the release of election results, which were scheduled to be announced on Nov. 27.
The group added that Embalo intended to appoint a new president and interim prime minister before calling new elections in which he planned to run again.
Ochieng also believes the coup was not a complete surprise.
Following Embalo's inauguration in February 2020, the opposition contested his victory, and the Supreme Court did not recognize him as president until September.
Embalo's leadership has also been hampered by political infighting. Even the duration of his interrupted mandate was contested, with opposition groups claiming that his term had expired in February despite the Supreme Court ruling that it would end in September.
Guinea-Bissau has not had a functioning legislature since Embalo, a former army general, dissolved it in 2023 amid allegations of a coup attempt.
The coup stemmed from "perennial weaknesses in institutions," according to Ochieng, who added that successive governments have been unable to strengthen their capacity to withstand military intervention.
‘Deeper state’
Freddie David Egesa, a security analyst based in Uganda, attributed Embalo's overthrow to a "deep state." In many countries, the term "deep state" refers to secretive power structures that operate behind the scenes.
According to Egesa, once the president is not in charge of the "deep state," his powers are weakened because that is where true power resides.
"Most of the presidents who are now very difficult to topple are those who have built their own armies from infancy; they have raised them, they have not inherited them," Egesa told Anadolu.
“Somehow, you are a servant of the person who has the military might because it is far different from the state, far different from the government. Once you have mastered the military might, then you have the right, powers, and ability to drive the government the way you want. But in case they (military) get suspicious about you, then they can literally kick you out.”
What’s next after the coup?
Ochieng outlined three main scenarios of what is likely to happen next in the country.
She suggested that the military will be able to consolidate power over the next year by appointing favorable members to strategic positions such as the defense, foreign, and finance ministries.
However, she mentioned the possibility of a countercoup. "Given Guinea-Bissau's deeply divided and factionalized military, a countercoup could occur. There is also the possibility of some clashes that will necessitate external intervention, as seen previously when ECOWAS sent in forces."
When asked about the junta's legitimacy, Ochieng warned that it will face "a severe test, particularly from the opposition."
The African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), which led the nationalist independence movement, was barred from participating in this year's election due to allegations that it filed its papers late.
"The new junta is likely to use repression to assert its power. At the same time, by committing to a one-year transition, the junta hopes to limit a harsh response from the regional and international community," Ochieng said.
