- Red Sea and Suez Canal disruptions pose a ‘direct threat to African sovereign stability,’ says Hubert Kinkoh from Chatham House
- ‘Supply-chain shocks are acting as potent political accelerants, turning global maritime friction into immediate triggers for social volatility,’ says Kinkoh
- US-Israel war with Iran is overshadowing conflicts across Africa that urgently need international attention, analyst warns
ISTANBUL
The widening US-Israel war with Iran is reverberating far beyond the Middle East, with Africa increasingly exposed to the geopolitical and economic fallout as maritime disruptions, security risks and shifting alliances reshape the continent’s strategic landscape.
From the shipping lanes around the Bab al-Mandab strait to rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, governments are being forced to navigate a crisis that is driving up energy costs, disrupting trade routes and intensifying competition among global powers.
“The spillover is already visible,” Hubert Kinkoh, a fellow at Chatham House, told Anadolu.
He pointed to growing threats from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group, which are constricting traffic through the Bab al-Mandab strait – a critical chokepoint between Yemen and Djibouti that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and carries up to 12% of global trade and millions of barrels of oil per day.
The waterway has become even more important following Iran’s disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, emerging as one of the few remaining routes for Persian Gulf oil exports.
Last week, the Iran-aligned Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said the group was “ready for all developments in this battle,” declaring support for Tehran.
Any closure of the strait risks escalating tensions in the Red Sea, where the US operates its only permanent African military base at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti.
Middle East turmoil’s growing toll on Africa
Beyond security risks, the war is also diverting global attention away from conflicts across Africa that are already exacting a heavy humanitarian toll.
“Perhaps most tragically, the escalating theater in the Gulf is effectively ‘silencing’ the war in Sudan,” Kinkoh said.
He warned that the conflict is being “starved of the diplomatic focus needed for peace,” as fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces approaches its third year.
According to UN data, more than 11,000 civilians were killed last year, around 13 million have been displaced, and about 21 million people face acute food insecurity.
At the same time, African economies are struggling to absorb the ripple effects of global instability.
“We are seeing a dangerous convergence where maritime insecurity and global price shocks are threatening to break already-strained African states,” he said.
Disruptions in Red Sea trade routes are increasing shipping costs and straining supply chains, while Egypt’s loss of gas supplies highlights how a regional conflict can quickly evolve into an energy crisis.
“Maritime disruption in the Red Sea and Suez is no longer a mere logistical headache – it is a direct threat to African sovereign stability,” Kinkoh said.
He added that disruptions to energy and fertilizer flows are driving up food and fuel prices, intensifying pressure on already vulnerable populations.
“In a region where economic frustration is already at a breaking point, these supply-chain shocks are acting as potent political accelerants, turning global maritime friction into immediate triggers for social volatility,” Kinkoh warned.
Geopolitical shocks intensify strain on Africa’s oil industry
Africa’s energy landscape reflects a deeper structural vulnerability.
Despite producing roughly 7.5 million barrels of crude oil per day, Africa only refines about a quarter of its oil domestically and imports most of its refined products.
“For Africa’s oil giants, record-high crude prices are a deceptive windfall,” said Kinkoh. “The revenue gains from crude are immediately cannibalized by the soaring costs of gasoline and diesel. This creates a fiscal wash at best and an inflationary crisis at worst.”
He warned that rising oil prices are not just an economic issue but a potential trigger for domestic instability.
In East Africa, rerouted shipping around the Cape of Good Hope is pushing up logistics costs, with Kenya already signaling possible price hikes that have become politically sensitive.
In Egypt, authorities have introduced measures to reduce electricity consumption, including early business closures and expanded remote work, as pressure on the energy system grows.
Kinkoh said the broader danger lies in a feedback loop, where rising energy costs drive up food prices, worsening economic stress in regions already grappling with currency depreciation and weak growth.
Africa’s delicate geopolitical balancing act
African countries have responded cautiously to the escalation, with many echoing the African Union’s calls for de-escalation or avoiding firm positions altogether.
While East African countries have generally condemned Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf states, Somalia and Sudan notably omitted the UAE from their expressions of solidarity, reflecting strained relations with the country over regional issues.
“Africa’s non-aligned stance is both its greatest geopolitical asset and its most acute vulnerability,” Kinkoh said.
The war, alongside the conflict in Ukraine, is pulling Africa deeper into a shifting global order, where major powers are competing for influence across strategic corridors.
Kinkoh pointed to Israel’s engagement with Somaliland as an example of how external actors are seeking footholds in strategically important locations.
Israel’s recognition of the breakaway region has raised concerns in Somalia and the broader region. Reports of a potential Israeli presence near the port of Berbera – a key Red Sea access point – have added to regional tensions, though Somaliland has denied any final agreement.
The UAE, which operates infrastructure in Berbera, has also been drawn into the evolving dynamics, further complicating an already sensitive geopolitical environment.
In response, Somalia has moved to cut some security and defense ties with the UAE, accusing it of undermining its sovereignty.
Iran’s influence in Africa has also grown steadily since the early 2020s, fueled by the security vacuums created by coups in the Sahel and Sudan’s civil war.
Through a mix of diplomacy, trade and military cooperation, Tehran has sought to build long-term influence while strengthening its strategic presence along key maritime routes.
“The war has increased the continent’s importance to Tehran, yet made the environment far more hostile for its expansion,” Kinkoh said.
“As Iran attempts to project power toward the Red Sea, it is colliding with a wall of surging engagement from the US, Israel and the Gulf states. This competitive pressure is redrawing the map.”
