‘Trump is targeting softer BRICS partners to send a message to other major BRICS players,’ says academic Kedibone Phago
- ‘The truth which everybody knows, including the US president, is that there is no genocide against white farmers in South Africa. There is no targeting of white South Africans and Afrikaners in particular,’ says Phago
ISTANBUL
Diplomatic tensions between the US and South Africa have escalated sharply following Washington’s expulsion of South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool, signaling a challenging road ahead for bilateral relations, according to political analysts and experts.
“I think it’s going to be a very rough road,” warned political analyst Dale McKinley, predicting that the Trump administration would continue exerting pressure on South Africa through various means.
Ambassador Rasool returned to South Africa on Sunday and was welcomed by a crowd of supporters at Cape Town International Airport.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared him persona non grata, further labeling him a “race-baiting politician,” following Rasool’s remarks at an event, where he accused US President Donald Trump of “mobilizing a supremacism.”
Kedibone Phago, a professor at North West University, described Rasool’s expulsion as “completely unprecedented” and an unexpected turn of events.
“It is actually very worrying at this particular point in time because South Africa does not have an understanding of why the US is acting in this manner,” Phago told Anadolu.
“This is because we have enjoyed very solid and strong diplomatic ties with the Americans for the longest time … Expelling our ambassador means that we are not welcome.”
Rasool’s expulsion is just the latest development in a series of controversial actions by the Trump administration that have significantly strained relations between the US and South Africa.
Last month, Trump signed an executive order freezing all aid to South Africa, accusing it of implementing unfair land policies and committing a “genocide” against the country’s white minority, and supporting Palestinian group Hamas and Iran.
Influences and the Israel factor
Experts believe the US stance towards South Africa is influenced by various factors, including South Africa’s role in BRICS, its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), and misinformation regarding the country’s land policies.
McKinley highlighted the influential role played by prominent expatriate South Africans close to President Trump.
“What is clear is that Trump is listening to ex-South African, white South Africans who have emigrated to the US,” McKinley told Anadolu, naming senior advisor and tech billionaire Elon Musk, tech entrepreneur Peter Thiel, and crypto czar David Sacks.
“They have a perspective of South Africa which is very ... opposed to the present government, and which is opposed to Black majority rule … They harken back to the old apartheid days.”
These individuals amplify narratives about alleged discrimination against white people in South Africa, contributing directly to the recent diplomatic conflict, he added.
McKinley also believes South Africa’s stance in support of Palestine has deeply angered Washington.
“It upset the Biden administration previously. It’s now even further upset the Trump administration, because Trump, much like Biden, but even more so, has unquestioning support for Israel and the Netanyahu government,” he said.
“I think that they’re trying to punish South Africa and trying to push it in a different direction because of their stance on Palestine.”
Misinformation campaign
Analysts also point to misinformation around South Africa’s new land laws – aimed at addressing inequalities that have continued since the apartheid era – influencing Trump’s actions.
Some 30 years after apartheid ended, white people, who make up just around 7% of South Africa’s population, own over 72% of farmland, according to a 2017 government report. The land expropriation law passed by President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government in late January gives the state more powers to seize land for public use, even without compensation.
This replaced previous laws under which the government could only buy land if there was a willing seller – a condition seen as a key reason in the slow pace of land reforms. The idea still is for landowners to get paid, but the new law has provisions for no compensation in circumstances where it is “just and equitable and in the public interest.”
“Anybody who knows the expropriation bill knows that no land has been taken from white farmers unilaterally without compensation,” McKinley explained.
“This has not happened, and it’s doubtful it will happen, and in fact, even the farmers’ association here indicated that that was the case.”
The voices Trump is listening to are from a small yet organized minority “that harkens back to a past where there was no Black majority rule, and where whites were basically in control,” he added.
Phago reinforced this view, stating clearly: “The truth which everybody knows, including the US president, is that there is no genocide against white farmers in South Africa. There is no targeting of white South Africans and Afrikaners in particular.”
The land expropriation law “is not targeting any racial group in South Africa,” he asserted.
Bullying and BRICS
Analysts labeled the current US approach toward South Africa as “bullying,” reflecting broader foreign policy dynamics.
“Let’s just call it what it is – it’s bullying,” McKinley said.
“It’s like a bully in the playground who’s basically pushing their weight around and trying to get people to do things.”
He warned that such an aggressive stance could set a concerning precedent.
“I think the world needs to, and is beginning to, understand that we need to respond to these things because it’s not just South Africa that’s going to be targeted, but any country could then become a target.”
McKinley further stressed that despite South Africa’s domestic issues, Trump’s approach is “simply unacceptable.”
On the BRICS factor, Phago believes that Washington views South Africa’s position within the bloc as a “force that threatens the existence and hegemony of the US as a superpower,” particularly concerning the global dominance of the US dollar.
First established in 2009, BRICS now has 10 members – Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, South Africa, and the UAE. The bloc’s growing numbers and economic clout have made it a frequent subject of debate and concerns for the US and its Western allies.
“My thinking here is that Trump is targeting softer BRICS partners, in a way, to send a message to other major BRICS players that this is what we are capable of doing,” Phago said.
He also linked current tensions to broader US foreign policy shifts, including withdrawal from international bodies like the World Health Organization and strained relations with traditional allies.
“This (US) departure means we are entering a completely new global order,” Phago said.
“This, I think, opens up a huge space for other countries, especially the BRICS nations, to bring in a multipolar world, where there is much more consensus, and allow many other countries to … also be recognized in multilateral platforms.”
‘Devastating’ economic implications
Experts believe that the strained diplomatic relationship could severely impact economic ties, particularly trade and investment.
Phago emphasized that South Africa has robust economic links with the US, one of its top trading partners.
“At the moment, the government has been reporting that we’ve got over 600 US companies operating in South Africa,” he said.
“If those businesses decide to leave South Africa, that can be huge in terms of impacting our employment, and that can really be very devastating for South Africa.”
He also raised concerns about potential impacts on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows tariff-free access to American markets, greatly benefiting South Africa’s textile, automotive, and agricultural sectors.
“It’s huge in every sense of the word, especially employment creation,” Phago warned. “If you look at it from that angle, that could be very devastating.”
He also commented on Musk’s influence, suggesting that the Tesla and SpaceX chief “wanted to do business in South Africa … (but) doesn’t seem to be very happy complying with South African laws.”
McKinley echoed these economic concerns, predicting that renewal negotiations for AGOA could become a battleground for further US pressure.
“I’m sure there’s going to be some pressure put there, attempts to pressure South Africa to change their policies in order to maintain access to US markets,” he said.
