ISTANBUL
Determining the winner of Tuesday's US presidential election – Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris – may take more than 24 hours, with slim chances of a final declaration on Wednesday, as neck-and-neck races are expected in seven swing states, American media reported, citing multiple factors for the possible delay.
The era of projecting a winner on election night is almost certainly over, NBC said in its report, and projecting a presidential winner as early as Wednesday would require key battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania, to be not nearly tied.
To make a reliable projection, there must be a significant gap between the first and second place candidates, the broadcaster said, citing the 2020 presidential races in Georgia and Arizona, where Joe Biden won by only 11,779 and 10,457 votes, respectively.
So, this time around, all votes must be counted before a winner can be projected. This process could take days, it claimed.
With one day remaining in the US presidential election, national and swing state polls have tightened, potentially resulting in very narrow margins of victory in several locations that may necessitate recounts, according to the BBC.
In addition, some results may be reported more slowly this year due to changes in how individual states, including the seven swing states that will ultimately decide the outcome, have conducted their elections since 2020.
In contrast, vote counting in states such as Michigan has been accelerated, and significantly fewer mail-in ballots are expected than in the previous election, which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic.
This suggests that several outcomes are possible and a winner could be declared on election night, the next morning, or even days or weeks later.
Noting that each state sets its own polling hours, Bloomberg said, that while most states can begin reporting preliminary results minutes after polls close, state laws and varying time zones can sometimes complicate the reporting process and race call timing.
For instance, counties in the Eastern Time Zone in Kentucky and Indiana states will begin reporting vote counts while voters in the Central Time Zone are still casting their ballots.
Other states, such as Alabama, Alaska, Oregon, and South Dakota, usually refrain from reporting any results until all counties have completed voting. Moreover, in Arizona and Idaho, state laws mandate officials to wait an hour after polls close before releasing any results.
If the 2020 presidential election serves as any indication, the results could take days to determine the winner.
In that election, the Associated Press, the unofficial but widely recognized real-time scorekeeper for US elections, did not declare Joe Biden the winner until the Saturday following Tuesday's voting. If this election is closer than the previous one, as many polls indicate, the results may take even longer to be finalized.
In a tightly contested election with high voter turnout, provisional and absentee ballots can put pressure on election counting systems. This was the case in 2020 when seven out of 10 voters cast their ballots before election day, either in person or by mail.
In an interview with NBC on Sunday, Trump claimed that he has "a substantial lead," noting his prediction that the winner will be known on the night of Tuesday's election.
The 2024 election is set for Tuesday, with Americans voting not only for the future of the US presidency, but also for Congress, several states, and local governments.
More than 78 million Americans have cast early ballots, including about 700,000 more Democrats than Republicans, according to data published by the University of Florida Election Lab.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the seven key battlegrounds or swing states in this election.
Harris and Trump have each spent significant time campaigning in the states with the understanding that anyone could potentially decide the election.
