Sea level rise could displace 20M in Mediterranean by 2100: Report

OVIEDO, Spain

Sea level rise due to climate change could permanently displace up to 20 million people by 2100, according to a report by the Mediterranean Experts on Climate and Environmental Change (MedECC) released Monday.

Transport networks and cultural heritage sites are also at high risk, according to the report presented at COP29. For instance, the region is home to three of the world’s 20 airports most at risk of coastal flooding.

“The Mediterranean Sea is a source of immense pride for the 22 countries that border its shores, an inextricable part of their identity and heritage,” said Union for the Mediterranean Project Manager for Energy and Climate Action Ines Duarte.

“But it is time to accept that the Mediterranean as we know it may not be around much longer if our efforts to counter climate change continue to fall short.”

Just weeks after the devastating floods in Spain’s Valencia region, which killed more than 220 people, the report said that the Mediterranean coast is among the world’s regions with the highest probability of compound flooding, which involves a combination of storm surges, high tides, torrential rain, and elevated river flows.

Yet, climate change and population growth in vulnerable areas will only worsen the impacts of that type of flooding, the report’s authors found.

By the end of the century, the sea level across the coast could rise by one meter (3.2 feet). At the same time, extreme sea-level events that occur once in 100 years are likely to increase by at least 10% by 2050 and 22% by 2100.

Beyond disastrous flooding, marine heat waves are also expected to become an increasing challenge for the region, which is heating up faster than the global average. Over the last two decades, they have already increased in frequency and duration by 40% and 15%, respectively.

The Mediterranean is also one of the most heavily plastic-polluted areas in the world, according to the report. By 2040, the leakage of plastics into the sea is likely to double if annual plastic production continues to grow at the same rate and waste management is not radically improved, MedECC found.

As the world’s leading tourism destination, the Mediterranean also faces the challenge of water scarcity during peak summer months. The report calls on the tourism sector to shift to more circular and greener practices.

“Efforts to adopt effective mitigation and adaptation measures are still insufficient to promote desirable and livable futures,” the report concludes, calling for more cross-border cooperation and climate-resilient development pathways.