Report warns of ‘lose-lose’ confrontations among regional, world powers

BERLIN

The world has entered into a volatile period, and more and more countries could end up in a “lose-lose” confrontation, a new report warned on Monday.

The Munich Security Conference’s annual report analyzed changes in the international order, and the impact of growing rivalries between global and regional powers.

“As more and more states define their success relative to others, a vicious cycle of relative-gains thinking, prosperity losses, and growing geopolitical tensions threatens to unroll,” the experts said.

“The resulting lose-lose dynamics are already unfolding in many policy fields and engulfing various regions,” they stressed.

The report, released ahead of this week’s Munich Security Conference (MSC), described the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as an example of a "lose-lose” confrontation, in which neither side can achieve victory, but both sides suffer heavy losses.

“In Eastern Europe, Moscow’s imperial ambitions have already resulted in war and undermined all visions for a cooperative security order for the foreseeable future,” the experts said in their report.

“The result is a lose-lose situation in which Ukraine risks losing the most, with its very survival as an independent country at stake, while Putin’s war is also taking a massive toll on the Russian population,” they stressed.

Tensions in Indo-Pacific

The report stressed that China’s assertive foreign policy moves and growing militarization have led to fears in the Indo-Pacific region, and could lead to more “lose-lose” confrontations between regional and world powers.

“Many countries in the region are seeking closer security ties with the US and are trying to reduce their economic dependency on China. But decisively reduced cooperation with China hurts both them and Beijing. Moreover, if great-power rivalry in the region escalates, everyone loses,” the experts also said.

Changing perceptions

A survey, commissioned by the MSC, revealed that the perceptions of people in Western states about the future of their countries have been largely pessimistic.

Only a few people in the rich G7 nations said they believe that their countries will be more secure and wealthy in a decade.

In Germany, %49 of the respondents said they do not think that their country will be more wealthy in 10 years, and %47 said their country will not be more secure in the coming years ahead.

In the UK, only %23 said their country will likely be more wealthy, and %20 said they believe that they will be living in a more secure environment.

According to the survey, the majority of people in Western countries expect China and other powers from the Global South to become much more powerful in the next 10 years.