By Ben Tavener
SAO PAULO
Brazil's Dilma Rousseff has clawed back votes and reduced her main rival's six-point lead to three points, according to a new poll published Tuesday.
The CNT/MDA survey of just over 2,000 eligible voters shows Rousseff, the incumbent president and candidate for the Workers' Party, ahead in the first round of votes 38.1 percent, up from 34.2 percent in the previous poll. Support for Brazilian Socialist Party hopeful and environmentalist Marina Silva increased from 28.2 to 33.5 percent.
Support for Aécio Neves, candidate for the center-right Brazilian Social Democracy Party, shrank from 16 to 14.7 percent.
In a runoff between the top first-round vote-getters, Silva would take 45.5 percent of votes, with Rousseff getting 42.7 percent – a technical tie given the poll's 2.2 percent margin of error.
A previous survey by polling company Datafolha had the two candidates neck-and-neck in the first round, with Silva beating Rousseff 48 percent to 41 percent in a simulated second round.
The new results will be welcomed by the Rousseff campaign, that have watched in recent weeks as Silva soared in the polls after her dramatic entry into the race following the death of the party's original candidate, Eduardo Campos, in a plane crash on Aug. 13.
Silva immediately overtook market favorite Neves and upended Rousseff's lead in the polls.
An anti-establishment figure, Silva is popular among younger voters and those disenchanted with the current government; she also has a significant following of fellow evangelizing Christians and environmentalists, but is distrusted by powerful ruralists.
While Silva is considered a wildcard and an unknown quantity for the markets, an entity she has continued to court, she is considered a better option than Rousseff, whom investors see as overly controlling in terms of fiscal policy.
The country's main stock exchange, the São Paulo-based Bovespa, initially fell approx. 1 percent on Tuesday's better results for Rousseff – blamed in part for the economy's lackluster performance and recent entry into recession.
Rousseff popularity up
Despite the results, 49 percent said they believed Rousseff, who is vying for a second term as president, would win the election, versus 34.9 percent for Silva. Just 6.2 percent of respondents believed Neves would be victorious.
Approval for Rousseff's government also continued to recover, rising from 33.1 percent at the end of August to its current 37.5 percent. Rousseff's personal approval rating increased to 52.4 percent, while her rejection rate, which has been consistently far higher than her rivals', dropped just under five points to 42.9 percent.
Commentators say Rousseff's improved performance in the poll is likely linked with revelations made last week, that if re-elected she would provide a "new team" for the start of her second mandate, signaling to the markets that the rethink on fiscal policy they seek could be in the cards.
The president has since announced that Finance Minister Guido Mantega, disliked by the markets along with the president, would not feature in her new cabinet, however, this confirmation came too late to affect this most recent poll.
The CNT Executive Director Bruno Batista believes Rousseff's slick electoral television campaign has provided her with a boost – the Workers' Party candidate also gets far more free airtime on national media given the number of deputies her election coalition has in government.
Others, including MDA Director Marcelo Souza, say the results are down to a plateauing of support for Silva, and also a reduction in the number of undecided voters and those who said they would either not vote or spoil their ballot, according to the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper.
Fresh scandal
This latest poll was conducted Sept. 5-7, so the survey would not have taken in news of a fresh corruption scandal involving the country's state-run oil giant Petrobras and political figures at the heart of the Rousseff's government.
Allegations by a former Petrobras executive, currently in prison, are expected to send shockwaves through Rousseff's bid for re-election, with less than a month to go before Brazilians go to the polls in the first round of voting on Oct. 5.
Her rivals are attempting to score points from the alleged corruption scheme, which is reported to be linked to dozens of ruling politicians, reportedly including at least one minister.
One of the 11 presidential candidates - Pastor Everaldo, who gained one percent of voter support in the poll - has demanded Rousseff step down, although she has denied knowledge of the alleged kickback scheme.
Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva also famously faced a corruption scandal - the "mensalão" cash-for-votes scheme - in the lead-up to the 2006 elections. Lula also denied knowledge of the scandal, and went on to be re-elected.
Rousseff's predecessor, however, enjoyed far greater popularity than she currently has, and whether she can withstand this latest scandal in a long line of scandals to hit the Workers' Party has yet to be seen.
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