"Increasing violence and deepening sectarian groups create religious and sectarian differences," Dincer said Monday. "Iraqi citizenship made sectarian and religious identities more visible. Instead of using constructive identities, groups in Iraq are forming sub-identities," Osman Bahadir Dincer, a Middle East expert with the Ankara-based think tank International Strategic Research Organization, told the conference.
Turkey, Iraq's neighbor to the north, has played an important role in Iraq, and will have influence in the future, as well, said Murat Ozcelik, an ex-special envoy to Iraq and former ambassador in Baghdad, the Iraqi capital.
If Kurds want to become independent, the move will not be intended to upset Turkey, said Ozcelik. "I think Turkey will have extra influence to shape the future of Iraq," he said.
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known either as ISIL or ISIS, took control much of northern Iraq in the power vacuum left by the government in Baghdad.
ISIL is an umbrella organization that includes ex-Baathists, local Sunni tribesmen, local and transnational networks, and Salafi-Jihadist networks, said Metin Turcan from Bilkent University.
The organization's political objectives are to break down boundaries between Iraq and Syria by establishing an Islamic emirate that would control terrain across those two countries, said Turcan. Bringing like-minded people to fight alongside them will connect the emirate to the wider Sunni Muslim community, he said.
"Sunnis will surely say the last word in Iraq," said Turcan, adding that ISIL will try to shut Baghdad down after negotiating with the Kurds before turning its back on northern Iraq and moving south.
Monday's conference was hosted by the International Strategic Research Organization on a latest report on "Increasing Violence and Deepening Divisions: Rise of Radical Groups and Iraq's Uncertain Future." The report was written by Osman Bahadir Dincer, the organization's Middle East expert, and Omer Faruk Topal, a research assistant concentrating on the Middle East.
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