October 21, 2015•Update: October 23, 2015
By Zaki Shaikh and Andrew Rosenbaum
LONDON
No victory is likely for Russia in Syria, except in terms of domestic and international policy, according to experts.
There is little chance for an outright military victory for Russia, Jurgen Tritten, a member of the German Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee told Zeit Online on Oct. 15.
“If the United States could not succeed in Iraq with a force of 350,000 then Russia does not have much brighter prospects for victory in Syria. They may face much bigger problems in a shorter time as they have a much smaller force,” Tritten said.
“While Syrian officials expect Russia to help the regime regain all of the territory it has lost in the war, President Vladimir Putin is wary of a conflict similar to Afghanistan, not to mention the demographic barriers associated with retaking the entire country. A more likely Russian objective is the creation of a coastal ministate, similar to the Abkhazia ministate on the Black Sea coast of Georgia. Such a ministate would presumably ensure Russian access to an expanded air and naval base in the Eastern Mediterranean,” said Fabrice Balanche, a security expert with the Washington Institute in a note published on Oct. 1.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin may well attain both domestic and international policy objectives through the military intervention in Syria.
“With little chance of military victory, Putin is not likely to keep his forces in Syria for a long time. He will take advantage, however, of this chance to be seen as a strong leader, one who can change the game in geopolitics. This will considerably boost his popularity at home, as he has shown that he did not allow the West to have a free hand in Syria,” Nikolay Petrov, a resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said at a conference in London on Monday.
Russia is also pressing for international resistance to regime change through popular demonstrations, of the type that were so important in the ‘Arab Spring.’
In her speech to the International Parliamentary Union on Sunday, Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the Council of the Russian Federation, said: "Migration is caused by many reasons such as economic factors, poverty, unemployment, armed conflict. But for the most part – it is the result of short-sighted policies of some countries, illicit interference in the affairs of sovereign states, support for illegal armed groups to overthrow unpopular regimes through crowd-led uprisings. These lead to an imposition of a democratic facade without accounting for local religious, national and cultural factors. All this was clearly manifested in the Middle East and North Africa. What we got as a result, is DAESH and other powerful terrorist organizations which now pose a major threat to the world community," Russia’s Vest news channel reported.
Trittin pointed out that Russia opposes regime change in Syria, and its intervention has given it an effective position to oppose it. “Putin cites lessons from the Western intervention in Libya to show that regime change aggravates problems instead of solving them.” Russia is now able to support the Assad regime’s survival, another policy objective, he added.
Speaking at the University of London on Monday, Russian commentator Maria Lipman said that Russia was likely to attain its policy objectives in Syria. “It was a chance Putin could not miss to take advantage of the lack of a strong policy by the West in Syria, and the absence of action by the Western coalition."
President Putin also wants to bring Russia out of isolation, Lippman continued. “This gives the impression that Russia has a winning geopolitical strategy and an effective foreign policy.”
Lipman pointed out that success in this risky strategy in Syria may tempt Putin into other risky ventures, such as positioning Russian troops along the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan.
Trittin warned that Russian intervention in Syria may lead to a relaxation of some sanctions imposed against Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
“While some sanctions are related to intervention in Eastern Ukraine, others were applied after the annexation of Crimea by Russia. Economic sanctions may be eased depending on improvement in Eastern Ukraine, those relating to the Crimea may continue for a while,” he said.
In the end, Putin will achieve considerable gains in terms of geopolitics.
“The West's lack of political will has empowered Putin to probe and challenge the international community with little resistance. His recent actions represent a zero-sum approach to diplomacy, and he now hopes to influence U.S. decision making through a bolder political and military commitment to Assad. Russia might even be able to turn Syria into a "frozen" conflict similar to Abkhazia which would allow Moscow to continue its involvement there at a low cost,” according to Anna Borshchevskaya, a policy expert with the Washington Institute in an Oct. 1 note.
