By Rafiu Ajakaye
LAGOS
In the course of a single month, Nigeria has racked up military gains against Boko Haram more significant than any since 2013, when the military was deployed in the country's restive north – raising questions about the army's sudden change of fortunes.
"I have always said that the major problem is the issue of political will," Patrick Agbambu, president of Security Watch Africa (SWA), which provides security advice and training, told the Anadolu Agency.
"Once you give the army the political will they desire, they will do the right thing at all times. I think the political will is there now," he said.
As of Feb. 7, when Nigeria announced a six-week general election delay because of insecurity in its northeastern region, at least 30 local government areas – and an assortment of towns, most of them captured in 2014 – were in the grip of Boko Haram.
Attacks were so rampant in the region that the electoral commission had said it would not send officials to the restive enclave.
Less than one month on, the Nigerian military seems to have reversed the trend, with less than four local government areas said to remain in the militants' hands, including Gwoza, the headquarters of Boko Haram's self-styled "Islamic caliphate."
Last week alone, the army successfully dislodged militants from over 25 towns and villages, including Baga and Monguno – two garrison towns in Borno State that had fallen to the insurgents early this year.
Going by the army's accounts, the militants have also been flushed out of much of the dreaded Sambisa forest, which until recent weeks had been a Boko Haram stronghold.
Observers believe these feats – achieved in such a short span of time – are incredible. Many ask what techniques are now being applied that did not work back in 2013, when the military was officially deployed in the region.
Nigeria first imposed a six-month state of emergency in the Adamawa, Borno and Yobe states on May 5, 2013, giving enormous powers to the military.
The measure was extended twice until November 2014, when parliament – responding to public protest – refused to grant another extension.
Agbambu, for his part, attributed the recent military successes to "newfound political will" on the part of the government.
"We must not lose sight of the fact that the Nigerian army has been credited to be one of the best all over the world. It has been proven in the past; their capacity and willingness are not in doubt," he said.
Last week, President Goodluck Jonathan visited troops stationed in northeastern towns recently liberated from Boko Haram.
He assured them that the government would ensure they received all the equipment and logistics needed to reassert control over areas formerly held by the militants.
Jonathan also assured troops that they would be duly rewarded upon the successful conclusion of the military operations.
Jonathan is standing for reelection in March 28 polls, in which he will take on Muhammadu Buhari – a former military ruler running on the ticket of the opposition All People's Congress (APC) – and 12 other candidates.
-Reinforcements-
Agbambu, meanwhile, said another reason for the recent military victories could be new weaponry that is now available to the army.
"The army now has more hardware with which to prosecute the war," he told AA.
In a televised interview two weeks ago, Jonathan said more weapons and military platforms had been procured to strengthen the fight against Boko Haram.
Austin Umoh, who teaches international relations at Lagos State University, instead attributed the recent military gains to regional forces that have recently joined the anti-Boko Haram campaign.
"They recently agreed to set up a 7,500-strong force to combat Boko Haram," he told AA.
He described the involvement of regional forces in the counter-terrorism campaign as a "game-changer."
"I would attribute [these successes] to the coalition forces and their Nigerian counterparts," said Umoh.
Boko Haram recently mounted several deadly attacks in neighboring countries – including Niger, Cameroon and Chad – prompting the latter to launch a joint counterterrorism campaign endorsed by the African Union and other regional bodies.
Cameroonian authorities recently said they were holding over 1,000 suspected Boko Haram militants at a prison in Maroua, capital of the country's Far North region near the Nigerian border.
The region has borne the brunt of Boko Haram's attacks in Cameroon, which have left dozens dead and hundreds of local families displaced.
According to figures recently released by the Nigerien Defense Ministry, 16 Nigerien troops and some 350 Boko Haram militants were killed in clashes that erupted in mid-February.
"That will go a long way towards addressing the insurgency problem in that part of Nigeria," said Umoh.
The university teacher insisted, however, that the crisis was far from over.
"Let them not make the mistake of thinking they could just wipe out Boko Haram," he said. "It has become a part of the Nigerian system because they have matured, going by their sources of funding and networks."
Umoh said Nigeria should learn a lesson from developments in Somalia.
"These elements [the militants] will always seek to torment the country through suicide bombing and all that," he asserted.
"This is what we should prepare for if they actually succeed in driving them from Sambisa, which I still doubt," he added.
Suicide bombings have recently spiked across much of the country's northern region following heavy bombardments of Boko Haram positions.
On Feb. 26, at least 29 people were killed in multiple blasts that rocked the town of Biu in northeastern Borno State and the town of Jos in central Plateau State.
Days earlier, at least 26 people were killed in suicide attacks that targeted bus stations in the town of Potiskum in northeastern Yobe State and Kano in the northwest.
The Nigerian military recently warned the public of possible militant attacks on "soft targets," such as bus stations, mosques and churches.
A brigadier-general in the Nigerian army linked the recent military successes to new military hardware, cooperation with regional neighbors, and pressure on Nigeria's political class.
"We have better ammunition now," he told AA on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to discuss the matter with the media.
"We took delivery of platforms that are far more effective and have boosted troop morale," the senior officer said.
He believes the new regional resolve to end the crisis has been a major factor.
"Our neighbors were until recently harboring these terrorists, but they appear to have seen the futility of their actions," said the brigadier-general.
He added: "Those guys [Boko Haram] were fast becoming a nuisance – and dangerous to them too."
According to the army officer, politicians on both sides "were either playing politics with the crisis or didn't appreciate the extent of it until recently."
While confident that the military campaign – which remains ongoing – would badly erode Boko Haram's "fighting ability," the senior officer expressed uncertainty as to whether or not it would address the socio-economic and ideological roots of the crisis.
"This crisis began by feeding on a number of social crises in our country. It remains to be seen if the political leadership will address these issues," he said.
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