Saleh al-Arouri assassination: How will Hezbollah react?

ISTANBUL

- Israel could re-focus on Hezbollah because of US push to minimize Gaza ground activities, according to Alkinani

The recent drone strike in Lebanon that killed Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri has sparked renewed concerns about Israel’s war on Gaza spreading to the wider Middle East beyond the borders of the besieged Palestinian enclave.

According to Lebanese media, Al-Arouri was targeted in an Israeli drone strike in the capital Beirut along with two other commanders of the Al-Qassam Brigades, but Israel has not officially confirmed nor denied responsibility for the attack.

In his first speech after the attack, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah vowed that their assassination “will not go unpunished.”

Experts analyzing the situation expressed apprehensions regarding Hezbollah’s possible reaction, suggesting it may differ from the group’s strategies since Oct. 7.

Political analyst Zeidon Alkinani pointed out that Hezbollah has been particularly cautious about an all-out conflict with Israel because of Lebanon’s precarious economic conditions.

He said the current level of hostilities with Israel is less than what Hezbollah is capable of handling.

“However, this attack will most likely drag Hezbollah to respond in more than just a ‘symbolic’ reaction,” Alkinani, non-resident fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC, told Anadolu.

Israel, on the other hand, does not want a full war with Lebanon at this stage to “minimize pressuring itself from both northern and southern sides,” he said.

Regarding the drone attack, he said it seems to be a case of Israel realizing “that Hezbollah’s current preference is not to reach a stage of conflict that will go beyond the current level.”

“That is perhaps why it felt the confidence to take this opportunity, and (Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu getting himself domestic points during critical times in his tenure,” said Alkinani.

With Hezbollah’s response possibly being different from what it has been doing over the past few months, this can lead to a situation which may “escalate the Israel-Lebanese borders, where both sides might attack cities further beyond the ones near both borders,” he said.

Alkinani said the attack marks a “major escalation” in the conflict for various reasons.

“It targets someone very senior in Hamas’ leadership, it is Israel’s first attack on Beirut since the 2006 war, and it perhaps translates into Israel’s re-focus on Lebanon’s Hezbollah since it may respond to US pressures on minimizing its ground military activities in Gaza due to the pressures of the international community,” he explained.

Hezbollah’s perception

For political analyst Yossi Mekelberg, it is particularly interesting that Israel has not officially confirmed nor denied responsibility for the drone attack.

Israel, though, “would like everyone to believe that it did it under a plausible deniability,” he said.

Mekelberg, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, said Hezbollah’s reaction will show “how much it is actually interested in entering the war.”

When the Gaza crisis started in October, Hezbollah chief Nasrallah said it was a “Palestinian issue” and the group would not get involved as they were not informed about the initial Hamas attack, said Mekelberg.

On the other hand, Hezbollah has put a lot of pressure on Israel’s northern border, which is “basically empty” and a site of frequent skirmishes, he said.

However, Mekelberg was also of the view that “a full-blown war … is not the interest of Hezbollah or Israel.”

For Hamas, he said a response should be expected to al-Arouri’s assassination because he was “a major player in Hamas, not only in the political bureau but also in the military side of it in the West Bank.”

Another factor is that this is “first time in this war that such a senior member of the leadership has been killed,” he added.

Regarding potential responses, he said Hamas “still maintains its capability of firing rockets into Israel,” while there might be reactions in the West Bank or East Jerusalem too.

Israeli security forces are also on alert because they expect the reactions might even spill over into Israel, he added.

Israel’s strategies

Regarding Israeli attacks in other countries, Alkinani said the drone strike in Lebanon does not indicate it would do something similar in other regional countries.

“The so-called ‘axis of resistance’ against Israel is currently labelled upon Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and some armed groups … in Iraq, and Iran,” he said.

Mekelberg pointed out that carrying out an attack in Lebanon was an “easier decision” for Israel since the two do not have diplomatic relations.

From the very early days of this war, Israel said its objective is destroying Hamas, not only in Gaza but everywhere, he said.

He said the Israeli government has indicated it wants the war to last for quite a long time, and that it has moved to the third phase of the war, with less intense and more targeted aerial bombardment.

“The Israeli leadership understands that the pressure will mount because of the unbearable death toll among Palestinians in Gaza. It’s a matter of days or weeks until the pressure mounts and there are calls for a cease-fire,” said Mekelberg.

“So, if they need a victory for photo opportunities, then they are going after the leadership of Hamas. What happened yesterday in Beirut is one example of that.”

He said the goal Israel has set for itself of destroying Hamas is “impossible to attain.”

“They need, at a certain point, also to decide … at what point they scale down the wall and then think about the future of Gaza,” said Mekelberg.