UK group warns of sharp drop in vaccinations

LONDON

England could witness a sharp drop in the number of vaccines administered to its population, the government’s scientific committee warned on Tuesday.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) forecast that the nation’s vaccination drive could be reduced to 2.7 million doses a week until the end of July, highlighting that the government’s previous modeling had been wrong.

“The central rollout scenario provided by the Cabinet Office is considerably slower, at an average of 2.7m doses per week in England until the end of July (2m thereafter), compared to 3.2m per week in the previous iteration (3.9m thereafter),” SAGE said in a statement.

The projections were produced by a SAGE modeling sub-group and have been used by academics from the University of Warwick and Imperial College London to estimate how COVID-19 could further spread following the easing of lockdown restrictions in the coming months.

The committee has warned that it is “highly likely” there will be a resurgence in the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths once the country enters the later stages of the roadmap out of lockdown, but said any potential peak would be smaller than what was experienced this January.

“The scale, shape, and timing of any resurgence remain highly uncertain; in most scenarios modelled, any peak is smaller than the wave seen in January 2021. Any resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths following Step 2 of the Roadmap alone is highly unlikely to put unsustainable pressure on the NHS” or National Health Service, the group said.

The latest projections of a vaccine downfall were preceded by a month of tensions between the UK and EU over exports of vaccines between the two. The EU warned that it will ban further exports of vaccines to the UK and instead focus on inoculating its own population.

India, the world’s largest manufacturer of vaccines, also warned that it will block further exports to other countries, including the UK, and will focus on vaccinating its own people to reduce the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

On Tuesday 2,379 people in England had a confirmed positive test of the virus, bringing this week’s total to 22,794. This represents a 35.7% decrease from the previous seven days.

Twenty deaths were reported within 28 days of testing positive for the virus on Tuesday. Between March 31 and April 6, there were 212 deaths within 28 days of testing, down 45.2% from the previous week.

Some 31.6 million people had been administered their first dose of the vaccine by the end of April 5, with over 5 million people now having received the second. Some 47.3% of the population have received at least one dose of the vaccine.