German population to shrink 10% by 2070

ISTANBUL

Germany’s population is expected to fall around 10% by 2070, a drastic downward revision versus previous estimates of relative stability, according to an article published Tuesday by the Munich-based ifo Institute.

It cited the federal statistical bureau Destatis’ population projections in December, which showed a much faster demographic decline and aging than expected.

Lower net immigration, declining birth rates and a much smaller base population were some of the main reasons attributed to the falling population, according to the 2022 consensus.

The recent consensus showed Germany lost 1.3 million residents due to many foreigners leaving in the past 10 years without properly deregistering, according to the ifo article.

The revised projection, starting from the lower baseline, expects lower initial net migration and a birth rate falling to 1.31 children per woman in 2025, before stabilizing at 1.47 by 2040.

The lower anticipated migration is due to most immigrants being young, which results in fewer potential parents and fewer births in the coming years.

The new revision expects 150,000 fewer births versus the previous estimate by 2030, which can have a long-term compounding effect on population decline.

With the development, the demographic structure of Germany will also skew heavily towards older, as the number of retirement-age people, aged 67 and older, is expected to rise nearly 30% by the mid-2030s, bringing their share among the total population from 19.6% to nearly a 24.9%, or nearly a quarter.

Meanwhile, the number of children and working-age people, aged 20–66, is expected to fall by as much as 20% in the long term.

Eastern German states are expected to be the most affected by the demographic shift, where the overall population is estimated to fall 22% by 2070, according to the article.

⁠Germany’s eastern states may see their working-age and youth population plummet by as much as 30%, while western states may record a more moderate 9% overall decline.

Despite an expected net migration of 250,000 people per year on average, the figure may not fully compensate for the loss of the labor force.

The article warns that the demographic shift could negatively affect the German economy, infrastructure, and social security systems, urging policymakers to factor in the findings into their long-term public sector planning for staffing and pension reforms to avoid paying the cost of the changing population trend.