-May defeats rebel Customs Union amendment but risks persist
Last week, the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May fended off a rebellion in the lower house of Parliament Tuesday after narrowly defeating a Customs Union amendment by rebel Tory MPs that could have kept the U.K. in the Customs Union in the event of a ‘no deal’ scenario post-Brexit. MPs were able to defeat the proposal by a slim majority of six votes (307-301), and in the process, May was able to stave off an all-out Tory civil war between the , or those who voted for the U.K. to remain in the European Union, and the hardline Brexiteers, who want to end all links with the EU.
May, however, was not without defeat as minutes before the Customs Union amendment vote, she suffered her second Brexit defeat in the House of Commons, or lower house of after MPs voted to allow the U.K. to remain under the EU’s medicines regulatory network. The government was widely expected to be defeated on the rebel trade bill amendment, which could have forced May to try to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU if no agreement is reached on frictionless trade by Jan. 21, 2019.
Twelve Tory ‘remainer’ MPs rebelled against the party whip and backed the amendment while four Labour Brexit-supporting MPs rebelled against their party whip and backed the government.
Sources from the Conservative party said more Tory MPs would have rebelled against the government had the party whip not threatened them claiming a rebellion would force a vote of no-confidence against the prime minister and might open up the possibility of a general election.
However, Brexit risks continue in the U.K.
Britain's foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, has warned that without a "change in approach from the EU negotiators", there is now a "very real risk of a Brexit no deal by accident", according to the BBC.
Speaking in Berlin, Hunt said a no deal would be "challenging" but the U.K. would still "thrive economically".
Germany's foreign minister says it wants a deal "not a disorderly Brexit".
Heiko Maas, speaking after their talks said: "We know that everyone has to make mutual concessions to get this deal. We know that the European Union has its interests, overall interests, so not just individual member-states but EU institutions.
It is clear that in the last few weeks, there is much more of the talk of ‘no deal’ and the consequences of it in the U.K.”
The U.K. could refuse to pay its £39 billion divorce bill to Brussels if it does not get a trade deal, the new Brexit Secretary signaled yesterday, according to the Sunday Telegraph.
New Brexit secretary Dominic Raab said there had to be "conditionality" under the Article 50 withdrawal mechanism between settling Britain’s exit payment and creating a new relationship with the EU.
He also said the divorce bill could be used as leverage in talks.
Last December, the U.K. and the EU agreed on the divorce bill. However, now with the recent appointment of new ministers in the cabinet, even the few issues that have been agreed on are now coming back on the table to be used as leverage. Perhaps it is time to prepare either for an early election or a second referendum to avoid a most unwanted disorderly Brexit.