China’s total energy consumption will reach its peak of 3,750 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) around 2035, China National Petroleum Corporation’s (CNPC) latest report shows.
The country’s annual increase of energy consumption will be 1.5 percent in 2015-2020, 1.4 percent in 2020-2030, -0.04 percent in 2030-2040, and -0.5 percent in 2040-2050 respectively.
China, one of the two largest fossil fuel consumers in the world along with the U.S, tries to promote use of clean energy to prevent massive air pollution in its large cities due to large-scale industrial activities.
China’s fossil fuel consumption will peak in 2030 and reach to 2,930 mtoe. The average annual increase rate for fossil fuel consumption will be 0.7 percent before 2030 and 0.9 percent in 2030-2050.
The non-fossil fuel consumption will increase to 1,080 mtoe in 2015, with an average annual growth of 3.1 percent, according to the report. However, country’s fossil fuel consumption will slow down more than its non-fossil fuel consumption.
The share of clean energy in China’s energy mix will continue to increase almost 50 percent in 2050. The share of natural gas will increase from 6 percent to 18 percent and will replace oil and take second place in energy mix around 2040.
In addition, the share of non-fossil fuels will up from 12 percent to over 30 percent, especially solar and wind energy will increase from its current level 2 percent to 10 percent in 2050.
- Use of fossil fuels will decline
China’s industrial energy consumption will also peak in 2030 and then it will gradually fall back. The share of coal consumption in the Chinese industry will decrease from its current level around 60 percent to 40 percent in 2050.
The share of coal in China’s residential and commercial energy consumption will strongly decrease from 32 percent today to 3 percent in 2050. Due to government policies to reduce air pollution and replace coal with natural gas and electricity, the share of natural gas and electricity will rise around 17.5 percent in 2050.
The energy consumption for transportation will decrease after 2030. The share of oil in transportation will drop from its current level 90 percent to 77 percent and the share of natural gas and electricity will rise from today’s 12 percent to 20 percent in 2050.
China’s primary energy consumption will decrease to 3,520 mtoe in 2050. The share of coal will reduce from 66 percent in 2014 to 37 percent in 2050.
The share of oil will increase slowly from 17 percent in 2014 to 19.3 percent in 2025 and decrease 14 percent in 2050.
By Ugur Ertas