The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2021 by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) but kept growth unchanged for 2022 at 4.2 million bpd, the group said in its Monthly Oil Market Report on Wednesday.
Global oil demand is now expected to increase by around 5.82 million bpd, or 6.4%, to an average of 96.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, relative to the higher figure of 5.96 million bpd in the previous report.
According to the report, the downward revision is mainly driven by “lower-than-expected actual data for the first three quarters of this year, despite healthy oil demand assumptions going into the final quarter of the year, which will be supported by a seasonal uptick in petrochemical and heating fuel demand and the potential switch from natural gas to petroleum products due to high gas prices.”
In 2022, the group predicted that world oil demand would grow by 4.2 million bpd, or 4.3%, to reach 100.8 million bpd on the back of a healthy economic momentum in major consuming countries and better management of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Oil demand in OECD countries is forecast to increase by 5.9% to reach 44.7 million barrels this year, while oil demand in non-OECD countries will rise by 6.9% to reach 51.9 million barrels.
In 2022, oil demand in OECD countries is set to increase by 4.1% to 46.5 million barrels per day, while the oil demand of non-OECD countries is also expected to rise by 4.5% to 54.3 million barrels.
Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 is forecast to be 100,000 bpd higher than in 2020 at 27.8 million bpd, and next year is expected to reach 28.8 million bpd.
- OPEC crude oil production rises in September
Global oil production in September increased by 610,000 bpd compared to the previous month to average 95.93 million bpd, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 4.9 million bpd.
The report shows that OPEC crude oil production increased by 486,000 bpd month over month to an average of 27.33 million bpd, while the share of OPEC crude out of total global production rose to 28.5% in September, marking a 0.3% increase compared to the previous month.
Crude oil output increased mainly in Nigeria and Saudi Arabia while production decreased primarily in Venezuela and Libya.
Production in Nigeria increased by 156,000 bpd to 1.5 million bpd and rose by 139,000 bpd to 9.8 million bpd in Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, oil output in Venezuela decreased by 6,000 bpd to 527,000 bpd and in Libya by 5,000 bpd to 1.5 million bpd.
Non-OPEC liquids production in September increased by 100,000 bpd compared with the previous month to an average of 68.6 million bpd.
By Sibel Morrow