The transportation of Turkmenistan's natural gas to Türkiye via Iran, through a swap agreement, is seen as a significant milestone in enhancing Türkiye's energy security and diversifying its supply sources.
Experts say the deal will not only reinforce Türkiye's role as a key energy trade hub but also create a new export route for Turkmenistan, facilitating its push to expand westward.
As part of the agreement between Türkiye and Turkmenistan, 1.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Turkmen gas is set to be delivered to Türkiye by the end of 2025.
Analysts note that this swap mechanism will contribute directly to Türkiye's long-term energy supply strategy by providing a cost-effective and infrastructure-ready alternative for natural gas imports.
Rauf Mammadov, senior energy manager at Fuld & Company and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and Jamestown Foundation, told Anadolu that the swap-based transit of Turkmen gas through Iran is a strategic addition to Türkiye's energy portfolio, reinforcing its supply security while further diversifying its sources of natural gas.
This approach holds particular significance as it provides Türkiye with "an additional pipeline-based, cost-competitive supply that is independent of Russian gas, complementing its existing diversification efforts," Mammadov noted.
Mammadov stated that the contract represents an initial, although modest, step forward, given the relatively low contracted volumes. However, its significance cannot be understated, he said.
The new deal plays a crucial role in diversifying Türkiye's gas import portfolio while contributing to the liquidity of its increasingly liberalized natural gas market, he explained.
Moreover, it marks a pivotal moment in securing Turkmenistan's westward gas exports via an alternative route that bypasses Russia—an objective that Europe has pursued for decades, Mammadov emphasized.
Türkiye's newly signed natural gas agreement with Turkmenistan represents a critical step in advancing bilateral relations beyond diplomatic engagements, he said.
"This deal not only expands energy cooperation but also aligns with Türkiye's strategic vision of fostering deeper economic and political ties among Turkic-speaking nations. By securing this partnership, Türkiye is further cementing its role as a regional energy hub and enhancing its leadership in integrating Turkic economies," he noted.
- Agreement strengthens Türkiye's role in European energy markets
Mammadov highlighted Türkiye's critical position as a bridge between energy-rich nations in the east and the energy-dependent European market.
The deal "aligns with the broader shift in Europe's gas supply landscape, as production transitions from traditional hubs in Northwestern Europe—such as the North Sea, the Netherlands, and Norway—to emerging regions like the Black Sea (Romania) and the Eastern Mediterranean (Israel, Cyprus). Türkiye's ability to integrate and facilitate these new supply routes further cements its status as a crucial transit and trading hub," he noted.
However, he emphasized that achieving its full potential would require further liberalization of Türkiye's natural gas market, ongoing storage capacity expansions, and continued investments in renewable energy.
Mammadov noted that this agreement further strengthens Türkiye's position as a major gas transit hub, making it one of the few countries globally to import pipeline gas from four different sources: Russia (via Blue Stream and TurkStream), Azerbaijan (via TANAP), Iran (via the Tabriz–Ankara pipeline), and now Turkmenistan (via Iran).
Türkiye's diversification strategy significantly enhances its energy security and bargaining power in the regional and global markets, he stated.
- Existing pipelines provide cost-effective gas transfer
Ilham Shaban, head of the Caspian Barrel Center for Petroleum Research, stated that the transfer of 1.3 billion cubic meters of Turkmen natural gas to Türkiye via Iran presents a significant advantage, as it utilizes existing pipeline infrastructure without requiring additional investment.
"This development not only strengthens Türkiye's energy security but also highlights its strategic steps amid the ongoing global energy crisis," Shaban said.
He emphasized that the agreement underscores Türkiye's growing role as a key energy player, reinforcing its position in regional and international energy markets.
Shaban emphasized that Türkiye continues to expand its natural gas storage capacity to enhance its energy supply security.
"Türkiye aims to increase its underground gas storage capacity from the current 5 billion cubic meters to 10 billion cubic meters. This step will play a critical role in strengthening supply security," he stated.
Shaban highlighted that the demand from European energy consumers will be a key determining factor.
"If European countries choose to purchase this gas, Türkiye has the necessary infrastructure to facilitate it. Its strategic geographical position, well-developed pipeline network, and advanced energy infrastructure reinforce Türkiye's role as a pivotal player in regional energy trade," he stated.
By Gokce Topbas
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
