The fuel with the largest estimated demand growth is natural gas between 2015 and 2040, increasing by almost 32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), which is an annual average growth rate of 1.7 percent, according to OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2040 published on Sunday.
OPEC released its World Oil Outlook for 2040, where energy demand is anticipated to increase by around 33 percent between 2015 and 2040.
The share of natural gas in the global energy mix accounts for 25 percent in 2040, OPEC forecasted, which is up 3.3 percentage points from 2015.
Oil is forecasted to remain the largest contributor to the energy mix throughout 2015-2040 period, with a share of nearly 28 percent in 2040, higher than gas and coal.
This will be led by demand from transportation and petrochemicals, OPEC explained, adding that long-term oil demand is expected to increase by 14.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to reach 111.7 mb/d by 2040.
"Among all transport modes, the largest demand for oil comes from road transportation. In 2017, this sector represented 45 percent of global demand with 43.6 mb/d and significant demand growth is expected in the long-term to reach 47.8 mb/d by 2040," the report read.
This is followed by aviation, which is estimated to be the fastest growing sector, with average oil demand growth at 1.5 percent per annum. Demand growth in industry is driven mainly by the petrochemical sector, it added, with demand forecast to increase by 4.5 mb/d from 2017–2040.
The report noted that fossil fuels are projected to remain the dominant component in the global energy mix, with a share of 75 percent in 2040, albeit a drop of 6 percentage points from 2015.
- OPEC and non-OPEC supply
For supply, total non-OPEC liquid supply is projected to expand significantly, with the majority of the growth over the next decade coming from U.S. tight oil. Global tight oil supply is projected to expand to 16 mb/d by the late 2020s, making up almost 25 percent of non-OPEC supply by then.
Given strong U.S. and other non-OPEC medium-term supply growth, the implied demand for OPEC crude is estimated to decline from 32.6 mb/d in 2017 to 31.6 mb/d in 2023.
However, it is projected to rise again to current levels in the latter half of the 2020s, when U.S. tight oil, and as a result, total non-OPEC supply peaks.
"Thereafter, a gradual decline in non-OPEC liquids supply, coupled with moderate, but sustained global demand growth, leads to a steady increase in demand for OPEC crude, which rises to nearly 40 mb/d by 2040," the report said.
- Nuclear and coal
Strong demand growth is also expected for nuclear, increasing by around 9 mboe/d, due to strong expansion in developing countries and supported by the anticipated return of nuclear energy in Japan, OPEC noted.
"Coal has the lowest average growth of just 0.2 percent per annum," the report said.
By Ebru Sengul