The last week of June and the following summer months were expected to be filled with intense debate over the U.K.’s referendum on its exit from the EU (BREXIT). However, Brexit debates were overshadowed by the dizzying developments in and around Turkey.
Turkey’s political agenda immediately changed with the announcement of the Turkey-Israel deal in June to end the six-year-long diplomatic crisis between the two countries, both of which have been the pillars of democracy and stability in the region. This contribution to stability is much needed because the failed states, Iraq and Syria, were and continue to be the key source of instability in and around the region.
In the midst of negotiations between Turkey and Israel, Daesh attacked Istanbul’s Ataturk International Airport on June 28 taking 45 lives and wounding dozens.
The families of the victims rushed to hospitals and morgues to receive news or to identify the bodies of their beloved. Meanwhile President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and President Vladimir Putin of Russia were in preparations to make an announcement to mend bilateral relations which had been damaged since last November when a Russian fighter jet was shot down by Turkey.
The mutual understanding between Turkey and Russia had been crowned by the booming economic relations which were ground to a halt with the Russian fighter jet incident.
When the phone call between the two presidents was made to seal the deal, it was unsurprising as it was announced days beforehand. However, the outcome was full of good intentions which was much needed by both sides, more so for Turks who were mourning the victims of the heinuous airport attack while continuing to feel the economic effects of the failed relations.
Tension from the Turkey-Russia crisis abated after Erdogan’s first foreign visit to St. Petersburg after the attempted July 15 coup in Turkey to meet his counterpart on Aug. 9. However, tension between both countries was also exacerbated because of both countries’ stance in the civil war in Syria. The two sides may have opposite views on the future of President Assad of Syria, but they also have a common enemy; Daesh.
Turkey and Russia have shared a centuries-long history in which they struggled to eradicate one another. However, Turkey and Russia have managed to keep the peace during the last century unlike the rest of Europe. Turks have never forgotten communist Russia’s vital support in the diffcult times of the Turkish Liberation War (1919-22). That support has paved the way for decades of close economic cooperation between the two neighbors.
The 1936 Montreaux Convention, which aims to secure the Black Sea in favor of the littoral countries, was one of the political fruits of good Turkish-Russian relations in the past century.
Although good neighborly relations were overshadowed after the Second World War, and with Turkey's subsequent membership of NATO in 1952, Turkey followed a precise and decisive policy regarding the Black Sea and Russia.
Turkish policy over the Black Sea remained unchanged after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and its attitude towards peace and stability around the Black Sea was unchanged even after Russia annexed Crimea.
Putin was one of the first leaders to display concrete solidarity with Turkish democracy after the July 15 coup attempt while western leaders dragged their heels to issue even vague messages of support to Turkey.
Turkish democracy had been interrupted by military coups several times over the past few decades. However, the latest attempt on July 15 was prevented by the people who displayed devotion to a free democracy at the cost of their lives. They climbed on tanks on the streets, just as was done during Russia’s President Yeltsin’s time 25 years ago. Such devotion has not been witnessed in any other country in the eastern part of Europe, except in Turkey and Russia.
Democratic values in Turkey are at a higher standard than any other country in and around the Middle East. However, many elements in the western mass media and the public view Erdogan as a totalitarian leader. Nonetheless, he was elected by the majority of voters in a fully democratic election after three consecutive political victories as prime minister.
The President of the European Comission, Jean-Claude Juncker admitted during his visit to Ankara after the coup that it is clear the “West does not undestand Turkey” in relation to the Turkish public’s intense support shown in response to Erdogan’s call to take to the streets in defense of restoring democracy to quell the attempted coup.
The Syrian civil war also had a poisonous effect on Turkey-Russia relations and has been a major contributor to tainting the hundred-year peace between Turkey and Russia.
In fact, both Turkey and Russia, including the Assad regime, continue to fight against Daesh to defend against the territorial integrity of Syria. Furthermore, Turkey has been uneasy with the U.S.’s support given to the YPG - the Syrian version of the PKK - which is fighting against the Assad regime.
However, one of the critical problems from the Turkish point of view is the oppression on the Syrian people by the Assad regime which resulted in the mass exodus of millions of refugees to Turkey and from where hundreds of thousands ended up in Europe.
The Turkish public are also concerned with ethnic cleansing of the Turkmen minority across the Syrian border who have endured intolerable Syrian air attacks. Russia’s involvement has only played into the West’s hands which had been feeding anti-Russian feelings in Turkey.
- What kind of problem can Russia have with the Turkish minority in Syria? “Military operations were carried out according to Assad’s maps. It was Assad’s plan.” (Talat Enverovich, deputy chairman of the National Security Academy of Russia, Turkish Daily Yeni Safak, July 1, 2016).
Similar events during Russian imperial times, when there was no worthy economic ties, would probably have ended up in war. But the imperial times are in the past and nearly $30 billion in mutual trade is at stake. Once again, business trumps politics.
Fortunately, common sense prevailed and both presidents met last month to discuss repairing relations.
The first steps that were taken were the lifting of trade and tourism bans against Turkey while the two major Russian investments in Turkey, the Akkuyu nuclear power plant and the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, were brought back on the agenda as expected.
However, reconciliation may take time. Potential political differences, especially over Syria, should be eased in order to remove the clouds over economic relations. It is still unknown what the two presidents discussed in talks over Syria in St. Petersburg. However, both sides may have compromised to reach a point of understanding if not cooperation.
A Turkey-Russia cooperation may play a key role if peace and stability is to be restored in Syria. The Geneva process has clearly failed and the Western coalition’s air strikes, which cost nearly $10 billion, were fruitless.
It is now evident that Daesh cannot be eradicated with air strikes alone. U.S.-backed YPG also have proved ineffectual other than confiscating lands and villages from Arabs and Turkmens. The YPG and the Kurdish ethnic presence in the town of Kobani was to be eradicated by Daesh two years ago if Turkey had not, although passively, let Kurdish fighters from Northern Iraq pass through its territory. Daesh’s consequent attacks in Turkey were aimed at punishing Turkish support for Kobani. But in contrast, these attacks reinforced Turkey’s determination.
Turkey has always been against the forced relocation of people in Syria. So the YPG’s aspirations for the western bank of the river Euprates, where there is no longer any Kurdish ethnic presence, was declared as a red line. However YPG crossed the river and took the town of Munbic. Furthermore they focused on the town of Cerablus which is right next to the border.
Meanwhile, occasional crossborder rocket attacks on the Turkish towns have caused dozens of deaths along with property damage. The aim was to keep danger at bay from where the rockets could not reach Turkish territory. And this was only possible through the efforts of a military presence. The only modern and capable army in the vicinity was the Turkish Army.
So, at dawn on August 24, Turkey started the “Operation Euphrates Shield” with the support of Syrian opposition units which had been trained and organized by Turkey and the U.S.
The town of Cerablus was the first to be secured on August 24 from disorder and its residents were the first refugees to return home. Thousands of Syrians have already returned from Turkey to their homeland. More importantly, the tide of refugee flows was reversed.
As Prime Minister Boyko Borisov of Bulgaria, commented, “The Turkish Armed Forces have probably prevented a probable new migration wave of two million people with the Euphrates Shield operation in Syria’s Jarablus with the coalition.” (Turkish Daily News, August 26, 2015)
The rescued area reportedly is expected to be expanded rougly 90 kilometers to the West and 40-45 kilometers into Syria with the aim of becoming a safe zone for refugees. The area may be small compared with other Daesh dominated areas. However, its symbolic value is great in showing how the refugee problem can be dealt with during the civil war.
The Turkish army’s active intervention has also highlighted in a couple of weeks how Daesh can be defeated. If and when Turkey and Russia reach a way forward towards cooperation in Syria, it could well be the only way to end the war because Turkey and Russia are the only countries who guarantee the territorial integrity of Syria.
General Gerasimenko, chief of general staff of the Russian army visited Ankara last week. It is highly possible that his delegation discussed with their Turkish counterparts how to prevent a disaster in Syria or at least military cooperation (Anadolu Agency, Turkish, Russian military chiefs meet on Syria, Sept.15, 2016)
It has been seen that the U.S.-led western coalition has failed to deal with Daesh because U.S. fighter pilots are apparently confused on whom to fire at. They “mistakenly” killed 62 Syrian army troops last weekend. They did so several times in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. In fact, U.S. pilots are not alone in their confusion, it was stated in the Washington Post; “For several years, the Obama administration’s Syria policy has been stuck in a cycle of failure.” (Editorial Board, July 2, 2016).
The West may be concerned with Turkey’s distancing from NATO and its closeness to Russia, but the U.S. seems no more, if not less, dependable than Russia in possible co-operation in Syria.
- Opinions expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy.