IMF projects ‘stable yet underwhelming’ global economic growth

ISTANBUL

The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth at a "stable yet underwhelming" rate of 3.2% for 2023 and 2024, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.

Titled “Policy Pivot, Rising Threats,” the report outlines the challenges hindering growth over the next five years, such as aging populations and low productivity. While inflationary pressures have eased in many regions, the IMF warns that high policy uncertainty continues to weigh down growth projections, advising countries to "brace for uncertain times."

Key global projections

The report raised the US growth forecast for 2024 from 2.6% to 2.8%, with the 2025 projection also revised upward from 1.9% to 2.2%. However, Europe is facing a less optimistic outlook. The euro area’s 2023 growth projection was downgraded from 0.9% to 0.8%, and 2024’s estimate was cut from 1.5% to 1.2%.

Germany, Europe’s largest economy, saw its 2023 growth forecast cut to 0%, down from 0.2%, with next year’s forecast also lowered from 1.3% to 0.8%. France's 2024 projection increased slightly to 1.1%, though it was adjusted down from 1.3% for the following year.

Spain's 2023 growth forecast rose to 2.9%, with 2024 remaining steady at 2.1%. Italy's projection for this year held at 0.7%, while next year’s was revised down to 0.8%.

In Japan, growth for 2023 was reduced to 0.3%, while next year’s projection was increased to 1.1%. The UK's growth forecast for 2024 was raised to 1.1%, with 2025 unchanged at 1.5%.

Emerging and developing markets

In emerging and developing Asia, China’s 2023 growth estimate was lowered to 4.8% from 5%, while its 2024 projection remained at 4.5%. India’s economic growth forecast was unchanged at 7% for this year and 6.5% for next year.

Russia’s 2024 growth forecast improved from 3.2% to 3.6%, though the following year’s was cut from 1.5% to 1.3%.

Türkiye’s economic growth estimate was lowered to 3% for 2023, down from 3.6% in July’s outlook, with the 2024 projection unchanged at 2.7%.