- Disruption unprecedented in both scale and scope, with no fully operational alternative capable of replacing affected flows, according to associate fellow at US Middle East Institute
- Analysts warn no current workaround can fully replace affected flows, while market and environmental risks could deepen if conflict drags on
ISTANBUL
War-driven disruptions in and around the Strait of Hormuz are exposing the vulnerability of Gulf energy exports and are likely to accelerate investment in alternative pipelines, storage, rail networks and overseas energy assets, experts said.
According to them, the current shock stands out not only because of the volume of crude at risk, but also because it has disrupted a broader range of strategic commodities, including liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers and helium, underlining the Gulf’s central role in global energy and industrial supply chains.
Li-Chen Sim, an associate fellow at the US Middle East Institute, said the disruption is unprecedented in both scale and scope, with no fully operational alternative capable of replacing the affected flows.
“There is no operating workaround that can replace these flows because of the scale involved,” Sim said, adding that even after pipeline rerouting in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, about 17% of global oil flows remain affected.
Adi Imsirovic, a lecturer in Energy Systems at the University of Oxford, said emergency oil reserves could help absorb some of the shock in the short term, but warned that a prolonged conflict would be far more difficult to manage.
“The problem is a prolonged conflict, more than a few weeks,” he said, adding that pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE that bypass the strait can carry up to 7 million barrels per day, while Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain lack sufficient infrastructure to offset the disruption.
Existing alternatives remain limited
Experts say Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline remains the most reliable alternative for Gulf oil exports, while other options are either constrained or impractical under current conditions.
Sim noted that repeated targeting of Fujairah has further narrowed available routes, despite the emirate serving as the exit point for the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), which was built to bypass Hormuz.
As a result, the disruption has reinforced the strategic importance of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and underscored how limited alternative export infrastructure remains across much of the Gulf.
Bypass projects gain new urgency
The crisis is also likely to strengthen the Gulf’s long-running push to reduce reliance on Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
Sim said the UAE may accelerate plans for a second Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, known as ADCOP2, which would link offshore oil assets to Jebel Dhanna before running parallel to the existing line to Fujairah.
She said such a project would improve export resilience as Abu Dhabi aims to raise production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027.
Beyond pipelines, Sim said Gulf states could fast-track rail and logistics projects modeled on the UAE’s Etihad Rail network. One example is Hafeet Rail, which would connect Oman’s Sohar Port, located outside Hormuz, to the UAE network, improving the movement of both bulk and containerized cargo.
For geographically constrained exporters such as Qatar, Sim said the more realistic hedge may lie outside the region. With LNG and other exports effectively trapped by Hormuz disruptions and no alternative outlet available, she said Doha may need to expand investments in overseas LNG projects in the US and emerging suppliers such as Mozambique, as well as fertilizer plants in Morocco and Egypt.
She added that countries such as Kuwait may need to increase investment in oil storage, renewable energy and cross-border electricity trade, as lower oil output would also reduce associated gas supplies used for domestic power generation.
Jim Krane, an energy scholar at Rice University’s Baker Institute, said the closure of Hormuz has been “far easier than anyone anticipated,” increasing the urgency of developing bypass capacity.
He said several underused or abandoned pipelines could be revived or expanded, including the Iraq Pipeline through Saudi Arabia (IPSA), which once carried Iraqi crude to the Saudi Red Sea coast and has a capacity of just over 1.6 million barrels per day.
Krane also pointed to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline linking northern Iraq to Türkiye’s Mediterranean coast. He said the line currently carries about 200,000 barrels per day when operational, but has a theoretical capacity of up to 1.6 million barrels per day if fully utilized.
Oil flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline resumed on Wednesday after Iraq’s Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) reached an agreement with the central government to restart exports to Türkiye’s Ceyhan port.
Krane said that older Mediterranean export routes such as Tapline and the Iraq Petroleum Company pipeline, both shut since the 1980s, could also return to policy discussions as emergency options are reassessed.
Lasting trade shift seen as unlikely for now
Despite the disruption, experts cautioned against assuming a permanent rerouting of global crude flows away from the Gulf.
Sim said more vessels are already taking the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, likely carrying US crude to Asia, and that the Northern Sea Route could see increased seasonal use if the disruption continues into the summer.
However, she said Hormuz will likely remain the preferred route for Gulf-Asia trade once the crisis subsides, even if sporadic attacks or higher war-risk insurance premiums persist, as it remains shorter, more cost-effective and better supported by existing infrastructure.
Imsirovic was more skeptical that the conflict would lead to a lasting shift toward Atlantic Basin producers such as the US, Brazil or West Africa. He said the oil market remains finely balanced and that a prolonged war would more likely suppress demand through higher prices than permanently reshape trade flows.
On the US decision to temporarily ease some restrictions on Russian oil exports, Sim said Russian crude has already been competing with Gulf producers in China for more than a decade, with competition in India intensifying after Moscow’s war on Ukraine redirected flows eastward.
Still, she said the latest waiver is limited in scope and duration, applying only to Russian oil already at sea rather than new production, meaning its impact on Gulf producers is likely to be contained. Imsirovic, similarly, said the waiver is temporary, lasting 30 days, and would mainly normalize Russian flows to India and China, with some cargoes potentially heading to Türkiye.
Environmental risks could intensify
Experts warn that environmental risks could rise sharply if the conflict expands beyond shipping disruptions to direct damage to production and transport infrastructure.
Sim said oil fields and pipelines have so far avoided direct hits, though not for lack of attempts, and warned that attacks on wells or pipelines would push prices higher and worsen environmental damage.
She also noted that sanctions on Russia have already shifted more trade to a “ghost fleet” of older, often underinsured vessels, increasing the risk of oil spills and maritime accidents near Asian coastlines.
Imsirovic said burning tankers, storage facilities and refineries would carry clear environmental consequences, while any shift in oil shipments toward the Red Sea would expose vessels to new security risks, including potential Houthi attacks from Yemen.
Taken together, experts say the crisis reinforces a central reality for Gulf producers and major energy consumers: while alternatives exist, none can fully replace the Strait of Hormuz at current volumes, and any meaningful reduction in dependence would require years of investment in pipelines, ports, storage, rail and domestic energy systems.
