Fed minutes show most officials expect rate cuts in 2025

​​​​​​​By Mucahithan Avcioglu

ISTANBUL (AA) - The minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve that were revealed Wednesday showed most officials considered it would be appropriate to lower the policy rate this year, while some did not consider a rate cut due to inflation risks.

The minutes revealed that the officials mostly remained cautious about potential rate changes. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided to maintain the central bank's benchmark borrowing rate between the 4.25% to 4.5% range that it has maintained since December.

"Most participants assessed that some reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate this year would likely be appropriate, noting that upward pressure on inflation from tariffs may be temporary or modest, that medium- and longer-term inflation expectations had remained well anchored, or that some weakening of economic activity and labor market conditions could occur," it said.

"A couple" of officials noted they would be willing to consider lowering the policy rate's target range as soon as the next meeting if the data changed as they had anticipated.

"Some" officials stated that the most likely course of monetary policy would be to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged in 2025. They pointed out that recent inflation readings had continued to surpass the Committee's 2% target, that upside risks to inflation were still significant given factors like high short-term inflation expectations of households and businesses, or that they anticipated the economy would continue to be robust.

"Several" said the current target range for the policy rate may not be far above its neutral level.

The perspective that policy is now well-positioned to respond to changes in the data is mainly reflected in the minutes.

“Participants agreed that although uncertainty about inflation and the economic outlook had decreased, it remained appropriate to take a careful approach in adjusting monetary policy,” said the minutes.

The document said some officials believe that if trade deals are reached soon, inflation could be more limited “if firms are able to quickly adjust their supply chains, or if firms can use other margins of adjustment to reduce their exposure to the effects of tariffs.”

The US has been negotiating trade deals with various countries since the last meeting, reaching deals with the UK, China and Vietnam, while also sending letters to 21 nations to inform them of the tariff rate they will be paying from Aug. 1.

Meanwhile, the consumer inflation in the US rose 2.4% annually and 0.1% monthly in May.