The Strait of Hormuz crisis is having an overlooked impact far beyond the Middle East, as the US helps replace disrupted Gulf oil supplies while drawing down its own commercial and strategic reserves.
Asian refiners have increasingly turned to the US and other Atlantic Basin suppliers as restricted tanker traffic limits Middle Eastern crude shipments.
This additional pull on American oil has coincided with lower imports and the strongest refinery demand in years. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects commercial crude inventories to remain below the bottom of their five-year seasonal range through the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, continuing government releases have reduced the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to 293.4 million barrels, its lowest level since 1982.
The US remains the world’s largest crude producer, with output expected to average about 13.8 million barrels per day this year. However, smaller inventories leave the market more exposed to refinery outages, pipeline disruptions, hurricanes or another increase in overseas demand.
The EIA estimates that 89% of the crude oil and condensate transported through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets in the first half of 2025. China, India, Japan and South Korea were the leading destinations, together accounting for 74% of all Hormuz crude and condensate flows.
Oil and petroleum liquids moving through the strait averaged 21.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025 before dropping to 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026.
The agency estimates Middle Eastern production shutdowns averaged 5.5 million barrels per day in July and assumes Hormuz shipments will remain severely constrained through August before gradually recovering.
S&P Global Commodity Insights reported that Asian refiners began pivoting toward US crude after the initial disruption, strengthening demand for American grades and lifting WTI spot premiums.
Kpler, a commodities data and analytics company, estimated that US crude exports exceeded a record 5.2 million barrels per day in April and early May as global buyers sought alternatives to Gulf supplies.
Exports are only one part of the inventory draw.
The EIA said US net crude imports fell below 1 million barrels per day in April and May as exports surged and imports declined. At the same time, refineries increased processing after seasonal maintenance.
Crude inputs during the first seven months of 2026 were the highest since 2019, supported by strong margins and tight global gasoline and diesel supplies.
Commercial stocks declined every week from April 17 through June 26. Inventories fell by 25 million barrels in May, 15 million in June and 4 million in July—a cumulative draw of 44 million barrels.
A 17.4-million-barrel build followed in the week ending Aug. 7 as imports rose and exports declined, with most of the increase occurring on the Gulf Coast. Even after that increase, commercial stocks stood at 424.4 million barrels, about 2% below their five-year average.
The EIA expects below-average net imports through 2027 due to strong international demand for US crude and lower imports.
Commercial inventories help refiners manage temporary mismatches between supply and demand. When stocks are lower, delayed imports, pipeline interruptions or production outages can produce larger price movements.
The Gulf Coast is particularly important because it contains the largest concentration of US refineries and export terminals while also facing hurricane risks.
Cushing, Oklahoma—the delivery point for benchmark US West Texas Intermediate futures—is another indicator of market tightness.
An analysis published by CME Group’s PVM Oil Associates said Cushing stocks fell below 19 million barrels in late June, their lowest level since 2008, following lower net crude arrivals and historically high exports.
EIA data showed inventories recovering to 22.6 million barrels by Aug. 7, although they remained 21.5% below their level two years earlier.
Lower stocks at the hub can strengthen prompt WTI prices and increase sensitivity to changes in pipeline flows, refinery demand and exports.
Strong fuel margins are encouraging refiners to maintain high processing rates. The EIA expects refinery demand of around 17 million barrels per day through August and near the upper end of its five-year range through December, except during autumn maintenance.
The SPR contained 293.4 million barrels as of Aug. 14, down about 5.3 million from the previous week, according to the US Department of Energy.
The total comprised 100.9 million barrels of sweet crude and 192.5 million barrels of sour crude.
Historical EIA data showed that the reserve last held less oil in December 1982. The stockpile is now filled to about 41% of its authorized 714-million-barrel storage capacity.
The decline came as the Energy Department continued releases under an emergency program announced in March in response to disruptions caused by the Iran conflict and restricted Hormuz shipments.
President Donald Trump authorized the release of 172 million barrels as part of an International Energy Agency effort to place 400 million barrels of oil and refined products on the global market.
US strategic inventories stood at about 415.4 million barrels in mid-March, meaning the stockpile has since declined by roughly 122 million barrels.
Energy Department figures showed that 11.4 million barrels had been released so far in August, following withdrawals of 17.4 million in July, 33 million in June and 39.4 million in May.
Kpler said in late July that it had adopted an extended-conflict scenario after crude and condensate flows through Hormuz fell to around 1.7 million barrels per day on a seven-day moving average.
The EIA expects most shut-in Middle Eastern production to return near pre-conflict levels in early 2027, although about 600,000 barrels per day of disruption could remain through year-end.
It estimates global inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels per day in the second quarter and forecasts a further 3.8-million-barrel daily draw in the third.
The agency expects the tightening to keep Brent near $85 per barrel in the third quarter before it averages $78 in the fourth quarter and $69 in 2027 as supplies recover.
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