Commodity prices rise as US unemployment falls last week

ISTANBUL

Commodity prices increased last week despite rising non-farm payrolls and declining unemployment in the US, supporting the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.

The US non-farm payrolls rose by 256,000 people in December 2024, above expectations, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%.

The employment growth in the US accelerated in December last year and the labor market wrapped up 2024 on a solid footing, analysts say.

Market expectations show that the Fed may still not issue a cut before June 2025.

The US 10-Year Futures bond continued to rise last week, led by concerns over inflationary pressures, and balanced at 4.78% after reaching 4.79%, the highest since October 2023.

The US Dollar Index climbed to its highest level since November 2022 and completed last week at 109.7%, up 0.7%, while precious metals were on the rise, led by the political uncertainties due to the future economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China said it continued gold purchases in December last year after taking a six-month break and resuming in November.

Canadian miner Barrick Gold recently stated that it will temporarily suspend operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex in Mali due to new transportation restrictions, as the complex’s gold stock received a seizing order, preventing exports.

Last week, gold rose 2%, silver 2.5%, and silver and palladium 2.9% per ounce.

Copper climbed 5.4% after Chilean state miner Codelco’s copper production increased 17% in November 2024, pushing Chile’s copper production by a total of 10%.

Aluminum hiked 3.3%, nickel 3%, and lead 1.5%, while zinc fell 1% per pound.

As for the energy group, the US administration sanctioned Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, over 180 vessels, many oil traders, and oil service providers last week. The Treasury said the oil producers’ subsidiaries, some 80 organizations and individuals producing and exporting LNG were also sanctioned.

The global energy giant BP pledged to increase its oil production by 44% and gas production 89% in a 10-year contract at its largest field in India.

American oil refiner Phillips 66 said it will buy several pipelines and distribution systems from pipeline operator EPIC NGL for $2.2 billion.

Energy firm Centrica stated that Britain’s gas shortage levels fell significantly, as a week’s worth of gas is left in stocks.

French oil giant TotalEnergies announced that it is building a gas processing plant in Iraq, called ArtawiGas25, which will process 50 million cubic feet of gas per day.

Given these changes, Brent crude oil ended the week on a 3.7% increase per barrel and natural gas soared 12.1% last week.

As for the agricultural group, soybeans and corn rose 3.4% and 4.4%, respectively, after the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said it will accelerate developing new soybean and corn varieties to ensure food safety.

Draught in Argentina due to the La Nina weather phenomenon is expected to last until mid-January, which raises the estimates that soybean yields will fall for the sixth consecutive season.

Rice climbed 3.8% as Indonesian food supplier Bulog raised its domestic rice supply target from 1.27 million tons last year to 3 million tons in 2025.

Meanwhile, the ton price of cocoa ended last week on a 5.9% decline as Ghana’s cocoa purchases fell last month due to payment delays of the state caused by the recent elections. Ghanian farmers are concerned that the delays may lead to more smuggling.

Coffee rose 1.6% and cotton 1.2%, while sugar fell 2.8% per pound last week.

* Writing by Emir Yildirim.