Commodity prices down last week amid US dollar’s pressure

ISTANBUL

Commodity prices were on a negative course last week due to concerns that the Fed may postpone rate cuts, while the US dollar reached a one-year high, pressuring commodity markets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy has not provided the necessary signals for a rush in rate cuts, while the ongoing price pressure in the sub-items of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data further weakened estimates for continuing rate cuts.

The potential conflict between President-elect Donald Trump’s future policies and the Fed’s decisions in the coming period rendered asset price estimates difficult, analysts say.

Meanwhile, the ounce price of gold fell 4.55% last week as the US dollar Index reached its one-year high, the fastest weekly decline since mid-June 2021, while silver lost 3.35%, platinum 3.26%, and palladium 3.51%.

As for base metals, China’s nearly $1.4 trillion stimulus package, which was received insufficient, and Trump’s tariff threats limited the selling pressure.

The pound price of aluminum diverged, rising 3.26% last week, as production costs were offset by the rising price, since bauxite exports in Guinea halted.

China’s drought season starting this month could reduce hydropower supplies and push energy prices upwards, which could result in production cuts in aluminum, analysts say.

Copper fell 5.94% per pound, lead 3.66%, nickel 3.67%, and zinc 1.04% last week.

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil declined 3.83% as China’s crude oil processing volume fell 4.6% year-on-year in October, marking it the seventh consecutive decline.

The OPEC group lowered its 2024 demand estimates for the fourth consecutive year led by concerns over China, while the US crude oil stocks rose 2.1 million barrels the previous week, marking it the second largest increase above expectations in a row, leading to oversupply concerns.

Natural gas on the New York Stock Exchange rose 2.4%.

The rise was triggered after Russian Gazprom had announced that it would stop sending gas to Austria due to a $242.7 million arbitration case the OMV group won against Gazprom. The Russian gas provider halted deliveries.

As for the agricultural group, soybeans fell 3.08% last week as ongoing drought in Brazil caused delays in plantings, while China’s soybean imports reached 8.7 million tons, up 12% year-on-year.

Rice rose 4.48% as India’s rice stocks reached a record high of 29.7 million metric tons in November, above the target. The rice surplus allows India to increase its exports and it will not affect the domestic supply, analysts say.

Cotton prices fell 1.3% per pound as Brazilian agricultural firm SLC Agricola reported record yields in the third quarter, though they said that profit margins may narrow due to logistics issues and low commodity prices.

Coffee soared 12.7%, the strongest rise since late-mid-September 2021, after Italian coffeemaker Lavazza’s CEO Giuseppe Lavazza said coffee prices could double due to global inflation and climate change.

The ton price of cocoa hiked 22.4% as Ghana raised the fixed cocoa price for farmers for the second time to $3,062.

Meanwhile, corn rose 1.22% and sugar fell 1.19%.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim