- Experts warn cycle of court and military interventions could continue in Thailand
- Coming days will be critical for Thailand as new Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has pledged elections within four months
ISTANBUL
With its third government in two years now in power, experts say more change in Thailand’s political landscape is “guaranteed,” as the political, judicial and military elite continue to jostle for influence in the Southeast Asian nation.
Early this month, dramatic scenes unfolded when Thailand’s royal family rejected a move by then-acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai to dissolve parliament and call snap elections, resulting in a new vote in the legislature to elect a premier instead.
Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, was elected Thailand’s 32nd prime minister in the surprise vote, defeating Chaikasem Nitisiri of the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
“This is classic Thai politics,” Mark Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Kansai Gaidai University in Japan, told Anadolu.
“It’s a little bit of history repeating. Governments form, crises develop, followed by a period of intervention by the military or judiciary, and then a new government forms. This repeats again and again,” he said.
What triggered the new vote?
After nearly a decade of military rule following the 2014 coup, Thailand held general elections in 2023, resulting in a hung parliament.
The populist Pheu Thai Party, led by political veteran Thaksin Shinawatra and supported mainly by rural voters, formed a coalition government with smaller parties, including the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, and elected Srettha Thavisin as prime minister.
A year later, the Constitutional Court removed Srettha from office over the appointment of a convicted lawyer to the prime minister’s office.
Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn, then rose to become Thailand’s third prime minister from the Shinawatra political family.
But her premiership unraveled when a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen – where she appeared to criticize a top Thai military commander – sparked public outrage amid ongoing tensions on the Thai-Cambodian border.
A petition by military-appointed senators led the Constitutional Court to suspend Paetongtarn on charges of misconduct.
Despite holding just 69 seats in parliament, Bhumjaithai’s Anutin has now secured the premiership with support from the progressive People’s Party, formerly known as the Move Forward Party.
Move Forward had won the most seats – 151 – in the 2023 election on a bold platform of institutional and monarchy reform, but was later dissolved by the court for proposing to amend the lese-majeste law, which criminalizes criticism of the monarchy.
Its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was banned from politics. The party has since rebranded as the People’s Party.
Limited choices or political opportunism?
Amid all the political changes, the reformist People’s Party’s decision to support conservative Bhumjaithai drew criticism.
“The People’s Party (formerly Move Forward) was faced with limited choices after the Constitutional Court removed Paetongtarn from power,” said Cogan.
He said their support for Anutin hinged on an agreement that parliament would be dissolved within four months, giving voters a chance to choose a new prime minister.
“The betrayal would come if Anutin somehow decides to break his promises, or if political upheaval returns Thailand to a military-backed government,” he added.
While acknowledging the optics “aren’t good” for the People’s Party, he said no opposition party would have had an easy choice under such conditions.
Cogan recalled how Pheu Thai had previously “betrayed” Move Forward after the 2023 election, leaving “a sour taste” among voters.
In backing Anutin, he said the People’s Party found itself “in an unenviable position of playing kingmaker.”
“They surely picked the lesser of two evils, if only for a short time,” he added.
Why the Shinawatras keep losing power
Political scientist Wanwichit Boonprong believes the Constitutional Court’s decision to suspend Paetongtarn was “the final straw” for the conservative establishment.
He said delays in resolving the Cambodia dispute fueled public distrust in the Shinawatra family.
Thaksin, a former billionaire telecom tycoon, has remained a polarizing figure since his 2006 ouster in a military coup. His daughter Paetongtarn is seen as his political heir and now the latest casualty in what some analysts see as a sustained campaign by Thailand’s powerful establishment to erase his influence.
“The Shinawatras have lost their legitimacy to govern,” said Wanwichit, arguing that Pheu Thai’s lack of tangible achievements over two years also damaged public confidence.
“Therefore, the deep state, unwilling to allow Thai society to become more divided, is seizing this opportunity to eliminate Thaksin and his network from Thai politics,” he said.
A fragile roadmap for reform
Amending Thailand’s 2017 military-drafted Constitution has long been a core goal of the reformist People’s Party. But recent court rulings have made that process even more complicated.
Last week, the Constitutional Court ruled that at least three referendums would be needed to change the charter, which was designed to allow military-appointed senators to influence key decisions, including the removal of leaders.
“The People’s Party’s systematic planning to initiate the process of amending the current Constitution requires securing Senate support in favor of the amendment,” said Wanwichit.
He said the People’s Party must win Senate backing to move forward with reform.
“If successful, the next step is to develop a plan for holding a referendum to approve the draft constitution,” he explained.
The only party capable of swaying the Senate, he said, is Bhumjaithai.
But Pheu Thai could disrupt this fragile alliance by launching a no-confidence motion within the four-month window set by Anutin’s agreement with the People’s Party, Wanwichit cautioned.
He warned that if Pheu Thai launches a no-confidence motion against Anutin before the agreed four-month window ends, the People’s Party will face a difficult choice: stand by the government to keep the reform process alive, or switch to the opposition and risk derailing constitutional amendments.
What happens next?
The next four months could prove decisive.
If Anutin honors the agreement to dissolve parliament, new elections would offer voters a chance to reshape the political landscape. But if he delays or reneges, it could trigger mass protests and deepen the legitimacy crisis facing Thailand’s institutions.
Meanwhile, the People’s Party must weigh the risks of backing a conservative-led government against its long-term goal of constitutional reform.
Analysts say the cycle of instability will persist unless Thailand addresses the structural power held by unelected institutions – particularly the courts, military, and monarchy-appointed Senate.
For now, the country remains in political limbo.
“With the court wielding such vast power and no constitutional reforms on the horizon, this will be the trend going forward,” said Cogan. “It’s beyond predictable – it’s almost guaranteed.”
