OPINION - Israel’s Gaza offensive as a case of military failure

• Israel, in addition to losing a great deal of prestige due to its loss of troops and equipment on the ground, has proved itself to be a criminal state in the eyes of billions
  

- The author is an associate professor of Political Science.

ISTANBUL

Hamas carried out an attack against Israel on Oct. 7 of last year as a response to Israel’s continued occupation, years-long blockade, settlement expansion, and killing of Palestinians. Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks were unprecedented in its scale. Hundreds of Hamas forces infiltrated into Israel through land, sea, and air. Israeli security forces lost 379 personnel in the attack in addition to 796 civilian losses, some of them killed by Israel itself. According to the reports from many sources including Haaretz, in order to repulse the Hamas attack, Israeli forces shelled their own facilities, Israeli houses, and vehicles with Israeli citizens in them. Yet Hamas could kidnap 252 Israelis that day, most of whom are still in Gaza and some highly likely died in Israel’s 10-month-long brutal bombardment. Israeli intelligence agencies and the entire security apparatus took a heavy blow on Oct 7. Nevertheless, it was not a one-day failure on the Israeli side. Ten months after the Oct. 7 attacks, Israel is continuing to take heavy blows on diplomatic, legal, and military grounds.

Israel's image destroyed

Israel has killed over 39,000 Palestinians in its indiscriminate bombing of the urban areas in Gaza, yet has achieved little to increase its own security. According to the figures presented by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 32% of the fatalities in the Israeli strikes are children. Another 20% of the fatalities are women. Israel has already killed 2% of the entire Gazan population and seems to be trying hard to kill more, yet it has gained millions of new enemies not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank as sympathy for Hamas skyrocketed in the occupied territories. Unprecedented protests are taking place in the world including the Western capitals. Many countries are recognizing the state of Palestine and an increasing number of cases have been initiated in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and International Criminal Court (ICC) against Israel. The image of Israel is quite dim in the entire world, the country is suffering from diplomatic isolation despite unconditional support from the US.

While the overall balance sheet of Israel’s war on Gaza is self-defeating, Israel is also far from fulfilling its goals from a purely military perspective. For one thing, Israel is running out of ammunition as it takes quite a lot to turn Gaza into hell. Yet, this problem is a minor one since it has a simple solution as the US President Joe Biden administration is dedicated to supplying Israel with the bombs it needs to hit Gaza. The US has recently agreed to send another package of more than $1 billion in arms and ammunition. However, it is harder to replace the lost troops. Israel has lost 331 soldiers in Gaza since it started the land invasion. This is not a bright figure for the most mighty and rogue military of the region. After 10 straight months of continuous bombing and ongoing blockade, Israel is still suffering heavy blows in Gaza. In late June, Israel lost 21 soldiers in a single incident in a building in Gaza due to an RPG attack. This shows that Hamas could still inflict serious damage after 10 months of Israel’s indiscriminate bombing and strict blockade. While these losses can be seen as tactical losses that are sad but inevitable for the Israeli military, Israel is also far from achieving its strategic objectives, which is to create a new Gaza free of Hamas. Quite contrarily, probably every single child in Gaza, or the ones who could survive until now, are potential Hamas fighters of the future. Every single Gazan child has lost their family members, their homes, their body parts, or their lives. With its genocidal attack on Gaza, Israel is in fact building its own enemy army for the upcoming decade.

Israel is no longer safe

While the Gaza theater has few good news for the security planners of Israel, the broader picture is even more gloomy for Israel. It took first-time direct hits from Iran and Yemen on top of more ordinary rockets launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Whether it is drones or missiles, Israeli skies are no longer safe from aerial attacks. While such attacks on Israeli soil might help Israel to secure further military aid from Washington, Israel is also suffering from an emigration spike due to the heightened insecurity it feels. Around 50,000 Israelis permanently left Israel from Oct. 2023 to March 2024, much higher compared to the previous years. While Israel is reducing the Palestinian population with its strikes, it is losing a greater number of its very own population due to a widespread sense of insecurity and resulting emigration. This might lead Israel to lose its demographic war with Palestinians.

In the final analysis, Israel’s invasion of Gaza has achieved little other than destroying the lives of millions in Gaza. Israel has not achieved its strategic objectives, which were already blurry from the beginning, as Hamas could still effectively attack the Israeli military in Gaza after months of fighting. Israel, in addition to losing a great deal of prestige due to its loss of troops and equipment on the ground, has proved itself to be a criminal state in the eyes of billions. Nobody knows when the Israeli attacks will end as it has pretty much unlimited support from the US to continue its offensive even after crossing Biden’s so-called red lines. But the Israeli offensive has brought more bad than good to Israel and it is still unclear what it has achieved other than isolating Israel in the international arena.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu