3 QUESTIONS - Coup plot and instability in Kyrgyzstan

The author is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Politics at the University of York and focuses on Central Asian politics.

ISTANBUL

In three questions, Burak Caliskan evaluates the coup attempt, its causes, and future scenarios in Kyrgyzstan.

• What caused the latest developments in the country?

On June 5th, Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, witnessed the apprehension of over 30 individuals by security forces, who alleged their involvement in a planned coup. In an official statement released by the State Committee for National Security (GKNB), it was affirmed that a covertly operating group, aiming to orchestrate large-scale protests and seize control of the government, was successfully identified and thwarted. Investigations have revealed that this criminal organization spent an entire year purposely mobilizing government opponents across the country, with Roza Nurmatova, the head of the Eldik Kenesh party, at the helm of the coup attempt. It has been ascertained that Nurmatova, along with her cohorts, actively recruited militants to pursue a violent seizure of power.

As evidence of these allegations, Kyrgyz security forces have unearthed an audio recording featuring Nurmatova and her associates engaged in discussions pertaining to the coup conspiracy. The recording captures dialogue revolving around instigating chaos in the streets and expanding the influence of the organization. Furthermore, information has been obtained indicating that the criminal group anticipated financial support from foreign entities to meet their organizational requirements and compensate key officials involved in the operations. The security forces have reported that alleged accomplices of Nurmatova have already provided confessions.

Following the border agreement between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan in October 2022, a group called the Defense Committee of Kempir-Abad, strongly opposed to the agreement, was arrested in Kyrgyzstan. They are accused of planning a rebellion and attempting a coup. The detained group consists of various individuals, including former ambassadors, military personnel, and politicians. They are currently held in custody while further investigations take place. Although the exact charges against Nurmatova's group are yet to be determined, it is likely that they will face a similar legal process as the activists arrested earlier. Sadyr Japarov, who became president in 2021, benefiting from Kyrgyzstan's history of coups, appears to be adopting a more cautious approach compared to his predecessors.

• What is the reason for political instability in Kyrgyzstan?

Kyrgyzstan stands out among its Central Asian counterparts, namely Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, due to a distinct characteristic. Unlike these 4 nations, where leaders and political authority hold significant sway, Kyrgyzstan has experienced a different pattern. In Kyrgyzstan, no leader or political group has managed to firmly establish and consolidate power. This is evident from the occurrence of 3 revolutions in the country in 2005, 2010, and 2020, resulting in changes in government. While Kyrgyzstan is often regarded as a stronghold of democracy within its region, surpassing its neighboring countries in terms of popular movements, elections, and civil society influence, the persistent challenges faced by the nation continue to trigger new political and social crises.

The political instability in Kyrgyzstan finds its roots in two main factors: An authority vacuum and a weak economy. These fundamental issues have led to the presence of numerous foreign non-governmental organizations, foundations, associations, and communities operating within the country. Kyrgyzstan offers a more conducive environment for these organizations compared to its neighboring states, where their operations may face greater challenges. In this context, missionaries from various Christian sects, Buddhist missionaries, Soros-supported foundations, the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO), and Salafi sects found significant opportunities for activity in Kyrgyzstan. Many European Union (EU)-based NGOs actively manage initiatives such as soup kitchens, aid organizations, and orphanages in Kyrgyzstan.

The presence of these influential foreign organizations in Kyrgyzstan poses a significant security vulnerability for the country. It is noteworthy that these groups house organized crime networks and terrorist structures within their ranks. Despite their limited control over these externally supported entities, their operations are facilitated by the weakness of political authority and the inadequacy of the security forces. Moreover, even the relatively small amount of foreign currency brought into the country by each institution holds economic significance, allowing these organizations to operate with relative ease. These externally supported entities have a direct impact on Kyrgyz politics, further complicating the situation.

• What could the future scenarios be?

The recent arrest of a political group accused of plotting a coup in June 2023 highlights the prevailing political culture in the country. President Japarov, recognizing this reality, adopts a more cautious approach compared to his predecessors. The events unfolding in October 2022 and June 2023 further emphasize this need for caution. However, significant efforts are still required to achieve political stability in Kyrgyzstan. The deteriorating Kyrgyz economy is expected to exacerbate foreign dependence, perpetuating a system where global powers safeguard their interests through local actors. Consequently, Kyrgyz society continues to grapple with internal conflicts. While the weak political authority may foster a diversity of voices and a robust civil society, the persistent instability and harsh economic conditions take a toll on Kyrgyz society.

Along with these developments, various steps taken in Kyrgyz foreign policy in recent years have created hope for a more positive process. The increasing effectiveness of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) has positively impacted relations between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Long-standing border issues between the two nations, existing since their independence, were successfully resolved in 2022. Kyrgyzstan is actively seeking to balance the influence of Russia and China by cultivating ties with both the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and the European Union (EU). This multifaceted foreign policy approach holds the potential to contribute to stability in Kyrgyzstan.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.