- Trump has signaled positive cooperation with acting President Delcy Rodriguez so far, particularly around oil
- Experts say Venezuelan military loyalty remains critical, with Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, a Maduro ally now aligned with Rodriguez, being a key figure
ISTANBUL
After the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a US military operation in Caracas, questions swirl over who will fill the power vacuum as the Trump administration seeks to “run” the country.
US officials and analysts point to a strategy that preserves control over Venezuela’s interim leadership – currently led by acting President Delcy Rodriguez – while avoiding the risks of political collapse or direct nation-building.
Consuelo Thiers, a lecturer in international relations at the University of Edinburgh, said the US is likely to continue engaging directly with senior figures from the ruling establishment, particularly Rodriguez.
“If the US chooses to pursue stability while managing tensions … it is likely to seek negotiations with Rodriguez and other senior officials,” she told Anadolu. “This aligns with what Trump and (Secretary of State) Marco Rubio have stated clearly – namely, securing oil agreements and increasing Venezuela’s production capacity.”
Jack Clayton, a US foreign policy analyst, said both sides appear open to cooperation – at least for now.
“We know Rodriguez is in power for now, and that Trump and Rodriguez appear to be willing to work together … on the issue of oil,” he said.
Oil at the center of US calculations
Energy interests remain a central pillar of US policy toward Venezuela, analysts say – a reality underscored by Trump’s own statements.
On Friday, Trump said on his social media network Truth Social that he had canceled a “previously expected second wave of attacks,” citing improving cooperation with Caracas, “especially as it pertains to rebuilding, in a much bigger, better and more modern form, their oil and gas infrastructure.”
Earlier this week, Trump also said Venezuela would “turn over” up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US.
In an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday, he said “only time will tell” how long the US could control the country, expecting to run it and tap into its oil reserves and sales for years.
Clayton said this approach reflects Trump’s desire to secure resources while avoiding the costs of direct governance.
“That is to essentially be able to have access to the resources that he wants,” he said. “But, at the same time, having the Venezuelan regime still operate there on the face of it and keep things under control in the country, as opposed to actually trying to create a new regime that could require a lot of time and economic resources."
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt echoed the claim that the US aims to control Venezuela through its current regime, telling reporters on Wednesday that the US administration has “maximum leverage over the interim authorities in Venezuela right now.”
No clear push for regime change or elections
While US officials have long framed democratic transition as a goal in military interventions, experts say there is little indication that Washington is pressing for immediate elections.
“Right now, rather than pushing for complete regime change, the US seems to be betting on extracting concessions from the Venezuelan government by threatening new military action,” Victor Aguilar, a Latin America expert at the International Crisis Group, told Anadolu.
He also noted that the Trump administration appears divided internally.
“Even within the Trump administration, there are conflicting statements about how they plan to conduct their relationship with the Venezuelan leaders, and some details are likely still being worked out,” he said. “Still, it seems likely that some officials, especially Rubio, will continue to push for regime change.”
Aguilar predicts that the Venezuelan government will try to avoid holding elections and seek the support of judicial authorities to extend the term of the acting president.
“Rubio even stated that it was premature to talk about elections and that the US is focused on working with the current Venezuelan authorities on issues they could not address with Maduro,” he added. “My impression, therefore, is that there is no clear plan for holding new elections in Venezuela.”
Military loyalty remains decisive
Analysts agree that the loyalty of Venezuela’s armed forces will be critical in shaping what comes next.
“The most dangerous scenario is one in which they split, and some sort of low-intensity internal conflict develops,” said Aguilar.
A key figure is Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, a longtime Maduro ally who is now aligned with Rodriguez.
Given the decisive role the armed forces have played in Venezuela, Thiers said that reaching an arrangement with Padrino is essential to preserving any degree of stability in the country.
“Without the support of the military, the prospects for a peaceful transition to democracy and long-term stability are extremely slim,” she said. “In this context, unless he (Lopez) is removed from power, he is likely to remain a key actor in shaping Venezuela’s future.”
Opposition sidelined
Experts say the Venezuelan opposition, particularly figures once promoted by Washington, has been marginalized.
“The Venezuelan opposition has been sidelined, and Maria Corina Machado in particular, seems to have lost both influence and the Trump administration’s trust that she could take power and stabilize the country right now,” said Aguilar.
Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize less than a month before the US military operation, and even dedicated it to Trump.
However, Trump himself said after the operation that Machado “doesn’t have the support within or the respect within the country,” though he later indicated he plans to meet her next week in the US.
Aguilar said Venezuela’s opposition will need to reassess its strategy because the Trump administration appears convinced that handing over power to them is too risky and would require deeper US involvement.
“If Rodriguez manages to bring stability to the government while also meeting some of Trump’s demands, things could get even harder for the opposition,” he said. “But there is no doubt they can still be key actors later on, depending on how the situation unfolds.”
Clayton suggested Trump’s coolness toward Machado may also be personal.
“He feels affronted and offended that someone else beat him to it (winning the Nobel Peace Prize),” he said.
A report by The Washington Post earlier this week, citing sources close to the White House, also suggested that Trump viewed Machado’s decision to accept the prize as a “serious mistake” that cost her his political support.
“Trump takes politics across the board very personally, whether in international relations, or with relationships with foreign leaders, or domestic politicians,” added Clayton.
Threat of further military action
Despite a lack of escalation, analysts caution that the risk of renewed US military action has not disappeared.
On Wednesday, the White House spokesperson said the US president “reserves the right to use the United States military if necessary.”
Trump has also personally threatened Venezuela’s interim leader.
“If she doesn’t do what’s right, she is going to pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro,” he told The Atlantic on Sunday.
On Friday, Trump said that despite cancelling more attacks, US naval assets would remain in place around Venezuela “for safety and security purposes.”
Thiers said Washington’s next steps will depend largely on how far Caracas is willing to go.
“Whether the US adopts a more aggressive stance will largely depend on how much Venezuela is willing to concede to US interests,” she said.
