ISTANBUL
The balloon incident may not bode well for the Joe Biden administration as much as for President Xi Jinping of China but the two sides can still turn it into an opportunity to reset relations, a China-focused academic at a US university told Anadolu.
“It will increase difficulties for both sides to accommodate,” said Haiyun Ma, from Frostburg State University, pointing out that US Republicans will “push for a hardliner policy” on Beijing.
The balloon incident “is an opportunity for them (Republicans) … so it’s bad news for the Biden administration and China,” said Haiyun.
Washington said Thursday that it tracked a suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon above the continental US, triggering anger among Americans.
US top diplomat Antony Blinken postponed a weekend trip to China, which would have been the first by the US Secretary of State since 2018.
Beijing said it regretted the incident. “The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into US airspace due to force majeure,” it said, adding the aircraft was “a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes.”
The Pentagon, however, rejected the explanation, insisting it is a “surveillance balloon.”
But Haiyun argued that the Chinese president has “high expectations to reset China-US relations.”
Andrew K.P. Leung, a Hong Kong-based Chinese affairs strategist, agreed, telling Anadolu that "it seems that neither side wants this (further deterioration of relations), considering President Xi was about to host a dinner for Blinken."
“This event is more like an accident,” said Haiyun. “I think it is not a military balloon, it will not seriously affect the already deteriorating relationship.”
He suggested the two sides can turn the incident into an “opportunity to accommodate each other in other areas” and “that’s possible.”
Calling the incident "an irresponsible act", Blinken told China’s Foreign Affairs chief Wang Yi, in a telephone call that it was a “clear violation of US sovereignty and international law that undermined the purpose of the trip.”
However, he stressed Washington was “committed to diplomatic engagement and maintaining open lines of communication.”
'No good outcome by mixing double-crossing’
After China’s response to an unannounced and unprecedented trip to Taiwan by former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Biden, and Xi agreed to move past the difficult events and resume building a consensus reached at a Bali meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit last November.
But the balloon incident appears to have hampered progress since the US top diplomat postponed his trip to Beijing.
Relations between the world’s top two economies have further spiraled since the administration of former President Donald Trump -- first triggering a trade war, followed by export control on chips.
The Biden administration has intensified blacklisting Chinese companies and targeted Huawei -- China's top innovation company and technological champion -- while it cobbled up alliances and signed new defense and economic pacts in the wider Asia-Pacific region amid expanding Chinese economic and military influence.
Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, the first in 25 years by a sitting House Speaker, added to tensions with China, suspending cooperation or communication in at least eight areas with the US. High-level military contacts have since resumed.
Before the balloon incident, while Blinken was preparing for his now-postponed trip to Beijing, the China strategist based in Hong Kong, told Anadolu that Washington “wants to establish workable guardrails to prevent relations from spiraling into war.”
“There is a bipartisan consensus that China has become an existential threat to the US-led global order. The hope seems to be that maximum, unbridled stranglehold over China can be rendered sustainable with suitable guardrails,” said Andrew.
Jingdong Yuan, who specializes in Asia-Pacific security, Chinese defense, and foreign policy at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Anadolu that the balloon incident is "not something to be surprised as both countries have been engaged in spying activities all the time, using a variety of technologies/means."
"The timing of the latest balloon incident, of course, is not good for bilateral relations, as the visit has been postponed... the question is whether the two sides can establish some ground rules or guardrails so that at least there will be some mutual understanding of what is permissible and what can be provocative and therefore need to be avoided," he said.
Andrew, however, said the US’ "penchant to cross or sneak through one red line after another (witness the Taiwan issue), sooner or later, managed conflict may lead to unintended, but unavoidable and uncontrollable consequences that may engulf US, China and the rest of the world.”
On whether Blinken’s China trip could have resulted in any tangible outcome, Andrew was pessimistic.
“Unfortunately, China’s DNA is more holistic than transactional. No good outcome is likely to ensue by mixing double-crossing and knife-stabbing with a pat on the back,” he said.
Reality versus rhetoric
Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at the Beijing-based Taihe Institute, told Anadolu that China wants to focus talks on trade, while the US wants to discuss security.
Comparing the situation as “reality versus rhetoric,” Tangen said Beijing, in a possible conversation with Washington and would try “not to fall into a tit-for-tat exchange of sanctions.”
But he said it “is always better to talk (but) the question is will the US listen.”
“The world faces a tough economic year, with the latest IMF (International Monetary Fund) predictions being that China will grow at 5.2% and the US at 1.4%,” he said.
Citing “positive global groupings and initiatives” by China, the Beijing-based expert said the US “has emphasized economic and physical wars.”
Referring to a report by the China Society for Human Rights Studies, Tangen said: “From the end of WWII in 1945 to 2001, among the 248-armed conflicts that occurred in 153 regions of the world, 201 were initiated by the US, accounting for 81% of the total number.”
“China’s success represents an existential threat to the failures of US leadership,” he said, referring to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Belt and Road Initiative, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
