- Youth-led protests began on Sept. 25 over severe shortages of water and electricity, poverty, alleged corruption, calling for President Andry Rajoelina’s resignation
- Army Personnel Administration Center (CAPSAT), an elite military unit, suspended the constitution and seized power after parliament voted to impeach President Rajoelina
- Madagascar’s High Constitutional Court 'invited' the CAPSAT leader Col. Michael Randrianirina to 'exercise the functions of head of state' and called for elections within 60 days
ISTANBUL
The Indian Ocean island nation of Madagascar has been thrust into political upheaval, as youth-led protests against the government have been followed by a military takeover that now defines the country’s uncertain future.
The crisis reached a turning point when the Army Personnel Administration Center (CAPSAT), an elite military unit, announced it had suspended the constitution and seized power, soon after parliament voted to impeach President Andry Rajoelina.
Led by Col. Michael Randrianirina, CAPSAT troops entered the Ambohitsorohitra presidential palace in the capital, Antananarivo, declaring they had taken control of the government.
The presidency condemned what it called CAPSAT’s “illegal declaration” to suspend the constitution, describing the unit as “a faction of military rebels” and calling its presence in the palace “a manifest act of attempted coup d’état and a serious violation of republican legality.”
The military said the presidency would be collectively assumed by its officers during a two-year transition leading to a referendum on a new constitution.
Five institutions, including the High Constitutional Court, the Independent National Electoral Commission, the Senate, the High Council for the Defense of Human Rights, and the High Court of Justice, were suspended, while the National Assembly remained in place.
Earlier, Rajoelina had dissolved parliament after weeks of youth-led anti-government protests, saying the move was necessary to restore order and give young people a greater voice. Hours later, lawmakers reconvened and voted to impeach him, setting the stage for the military’s intervention.
How protests turned into a power shift
In mid-September 2025, rising discontent over power outages, water shortages, and alleged corruption sparked mass protests following calls by politicians, as grassroots movements and youth-led social media pages quickly mobilized tens of thousands of young people.
The unrest escalated sharply on Sept. 25, when thousands defied a government ban and took to the streets of the capital Antananarivo. Protesters erected barricades, demanding restored water and electricity, but clashes with police turned violent.
Demonstrations continued in the following days, met with tear gas and rubber bullets. The UN reported casualties from both security force actions and unrelated gang violence. UN High Commissioner Volker Turk condemned the “violent response” and urged respect for protesters’ rights.
By Sept. 29, Rajoelina dismissed his energy minister and dissolved Prime Minister Christian Ntsay’s government amid mounting unrest. The UN reported 22 deaths and more than 100 injuries, though the government disputed the figures. Protests spread beyond the capital, led mainly by students and youth groups.
Despite political reshuffles, protests pressed on, demanding Rajoelina’s resignation and the dissolution of key institutions. On Oct. 6, the appointment of military general Ruphin Zafisambo as prime minister failed to quell unrest, which continued with clashes in cities, including Toliara and Antsiranana.
On Oct. 11, troops from the CAPSAT, an elite unit key to Rajoelina’s 2009 rise to power, declared support for the protests, and the following day installed Gen. Demosthene Pikulas as their new military chief hours after Rajoelina condemned their move as “an attempt to seize power illegally.”
On Oct. 13, Rajoelina said he was sheltering in a “safe space” following an “attempt on his life,” as he was reported to have been evacuated to France on a military plane after a “deal" with French President Emmanuel Macron. The next day, he dissolved parliament, citing the need to “restore order” and “make way for the youth.”
How history rhymed to Rajoelina’s detriment
Rajoelina’s rise began in December 2007 with a surprise win as Antananarivo mayor, quickly positioning himself as a fierce critic of then-President Marc Ravalomanana amid accusations of corruption and authoritarianism.
By late 2008, tensions escalated over a controversial land deal and media crackdowns, sparking mass protests in early 2009.
As unrest grew violent, CAPSAT mutinied and backed Rajoelina, paving the way for the ouster of Ravalomanana in March 2009 and Rajoelina’s takeover as head of the High Transitional Authority. The African Union condemned the move as a coup, while Rajoelina sought legitimacy through a fragile power-sharing deal later that year.
This turbulent ascent set a pattern of contested authority and fragile alliances, echoing through his political career and shaping Madagascar’s ongoing instability.
What fuels the anger of the Malagasy people
Madagascar’s recent unrest reflects years of deepening socioeconomic strain.
Only about 36% of the population has access to electricity, with rural coverage as low as 7-12%, while cities such as Antananarivo endure daily outages lasting 6-12 hours. The World Bank, IMF, and the African Development Bank cite mismanagement at the state utility Jirama and prolonged droughts as key causes.
Chronic water shortages have left many households without running water for days, and UNICEF estimates that 70% of southern residents lack access to basic drinking water.
Jirama’s debt stands at about 2.37 trillion Malagasy ariary ($529 million), equal to 7.6% of GDP, while aging infrastructure leads to 20% water losses and declining hydroelectric output.
Between 75% and 80% of Malagasy live below the $2.15-a-day poverty line, and the World Bank reports that poverty in secondary cities has risen from 46% to 61% in the past decade.
Youth unemployment exceeds 30% in urban areas, while inflation of around 7-8% has eroded already low wages.
Despite an urbanization rate of 4.2% annually, GDP per capita remains just $453. Transparency International ranks Madagascar 140th of 180 countries on its corruption index.
These economic, infrastructural, and institutional challenges form the backdrop to the current political crisis.
What lies ahead for Madagascar
On Tuesday, Madagascar’s High Constitutional Court “invited” CAPSAT leader Col. Michael Randrianirina to “exercise functions of head of state,” declaring the presidency “vacant.”
Citing Article 53 of the constitution, which requires a presidential election within 30 to 60 days of such a vacancy, the court called on Randrianirina to organize elections within 60 days.
The court also ruled that Rajoelina cannot fulfill his duties as “he is not, and cannot be” in the country, a situation it described as “passive abandonment of power.”
How Madagascar’s ongoing political crisis will affect its internal stability and standing in the international community remains uncertain.
