US and Russia reportedly agree on historic prisoner swap amid election-year stakes

MOSCOW

Russia and the US have reportedly agreed on a historic prisoner swap involving dozens of detainees, marking one of the most significant exchanges between the two nations in recent history.

Sergey Markov, director of the Moscow-based Institute of Political Studies and a former adviser to President Vladimir Putin, revealed to Anadolu that this bold move could have far-reaching implications, particularly in the context of the upcoming US presidential election.

"This is a significant exchange that has been in preparation for quite some time, possibly over a year," said Markov.

Markov suggested that the individuals involved include "agents," some of whom have been portrayed as "political figures," particularly in Russia.

"The Americans initially resisted acknowledging their political agents, preferring to call them as 'political prisoners.' However, they were ultimately compelled to admit the truth, so figures such as Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza may also be included," he said.

The expert said other countries might also be involved in the exchange. He cited Belarus, where German citizen Rico Krieger was recently sentenced to death; Germany, where Russian citizen Vadim Sokolov-Krasikov was sentenced to life in prison, and Slovenia, where two Russian citizens are serving two-year sentences for espionage.

"There is a complex negotiation process underway, making it challenging to estimate the exact number of individuals involved in the exchange. These people are of varying 'value,' and each country aims to minimize the perceived importance of those it needs while maximizing the 'exchange value' of those it is giving away," Markov explained.

Aim to boost Kamal Harris' rating

He attributed the timing of the exchange to the US presidential election. "The reason behind this exchange is linked to the US elections, with Kamala Harris needing to present a positive image. Therefore, the directive was given to make concessions," he asserted.

From Russia's perspective, the exchange serves to demonstrate the dangers of aligning with individuals perceived as American agents, he said.

"Russia's principal advantage is that it is bringing its people back to freedom," the expert added.

Numerous media reports on Thursday indicated that Moscow and Washington plan to engage in the largest prisoner exchange since 2010, when the two nations swapped 10 Russian secret agents living undercover in the US for four Russian nationals.

The list of individuals being prepared for exchange includes those associated with the organizations of the late Kremlin critic Alexey Navalny, Russian citizens imprisoned for criticizing the war in Ukraine, and American citizens.

Among them may be Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich, former Marine Paul Whelan, and other Americans currently serving prison terms in Russia.

At least four Russian citizens are imprisoned in the US.

A Russian sentenced to life in Germany has been mentioned by Putin as someone he would like to see returned to Russia.

The US media, citing sources, have confirmed expectations of the exchange, particularly regarding Gershkovich.

Meanwhile, Russian state media, citing data from the Flightradar24 portal, said an AN-148-100E aircraft with the registration number RA-61727 used in previous exchanges between Russia and the US flew to Russia’s westernmost Kaliningrad region and returned back earlier in the day.

The last prisoner exchange between Russia and the US occurred in December 2022, when Moscow released American basketball star Brittney Griner in exchange for notorious arms dealer Viktor Bout, who had been imprisoned in the US for 12 years.