BANNU, Pakistan
The Pakistani army's ongoing operations in North Waziristan have led nearly a million people to flee to the adjoining district of Bannu district - twice the number the government had expected as population estimates of the region proved to be astoundingly wrong.
As Pakistani forces seek to root out the Taliban coalition, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the number of registered internally displaced persons (IDPs) has soared to 992,000 on Monday, according to FATA (federally administered tribal areas) disaster management authority (FDMA), 200,000 more than the government’s estimate of the North Waziristan population.
“The government arrangements were already not sufficient to meet the requirements of 500,000 IDPs (originally expected by the government), and this unexpected surge in numbers has created a huge mess,” Abdul Khalique Ali, a Karachi-based security and political analyst said.
Indeed, the wrong estimate of North Waziristan’s population has led to a tense situation as the government and nongovernmental organizations have found themselves unprepared to cope with such an unexpectedly heavy flow of displaced people.
The lackluster handling of the overall situation resulted in the unceremonious ouster of FDMA chairman, Arshad Khan last week.
Clashes between fed-up IDPs and the police have thus been frequent in the Bannu district. On Saturday, a person was killed and another injured as troops fired after a frustrated displaced person hurled a stone at a paramilitary troop outside a ration distribution center.
While food, water and medicine are severely lacking, the ill-prepared government finds itself fortunate this has not been the case for lodging, namely thanks to Pashtunwali- a centuries-old Pashtun custom.
In line with Pashtunwali, a tribesman is bound to provide “panah” (shelter) to his fellow tribesman in case of need. “Pashtunwali has turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the government,” Abdul Khalique Ali said.
The powerful custom has overwhelmingly reduced the burden on the government agencies as the Waziris (people of Waziristan) based in Bannu have provided shelter to their hundreds of thousands of fellow tribesmen.
- Miscalculation
The total population of North Waziristan - one of the seven semi-autonomous tribal areas in Pakistan - was originally thought to be between 700,000 and 800,000 according to government statistics. NGOs had similar estimates.
The last census in this South Asian, predominantly Muslim, region was held in 1998 and fixed the population at 361,242. Authorities have since estimated a 100 percent increase in the population in the last 16 years. An evaluation that proved wrong for various cultural and practical reasons.
Not possessing the National Identification Cards or birth certificates is not uncommon in tribal society.
A large number of tribesmen hardly bother to get the birth of their children registered as there are only a few government hospitals in region. Many prefer to take their wives to small private or home-based clinics run by mid-wives, where there is no proper registration system.
Furthermore, a considerable number of women in Waziristan have never registered themselves with the election commission or the National Registration and Database Authority.
“Things are stricter in a tribal society, even compared to urban Pashtun society. Women are overprotected in a tribal society where a large number of tribesmen do not want women to be photographed (for registration)”, Abdul Khalique Ali said.
“Many women cannot even cast votes because of that”, he added.
- Another exodus
For the moment, the army has launched operations in only three out of ten towns of North Waziristan: the administrative headquarters, Miranshah, the second largest town of the region, Mir Ali, and Boya.
Because tribal elders have promised not to provide shelter to fleeing militants, the army has not announced an expansion of its invasion to other towns.
However, security experts do not rule out the possibility of military operations in the remaining areas of North Waziristan, possibly triggering another exodus, which could possibly double the current figures.
If the Pakistani army extends its operations to the remaining towns, namely Dattakhel which sits on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and is a regular target of US drone attacks, Spinwam, and Shawwal, considered to be the next battleground between militants and security forces, the number of IDPs will likely increase, Rahimullah Yusufzai, a Peshawar-based expert on tribal and Afghan affairs cautioned.
“A large number of people have not left the area as the military operation is occurring in only three out of ten towns [of North Waziristan],” he added.
However, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), a state organization that coordinates between different government relief and rescue agencies, downplayed the fears of further increases in the number of IDPs.
“The actual number of IDPs does not exceed 600,000. The rest is exaggeration,” Tariq Hayat, an NDMA spokesperson, and a former administrator- commonly known as Political Agent- of North Waziristan told Anadolu Agency.
He said that government authorities believed the figures provided by male heads of families at times of registration.
Insisting that the total population of North Waziristan did not exceed 700,000, Hayat said that people from the remaining seven towns had also migrated, and only a few had stayed behind to take care of homes and hearths.
“We are now examining the figures, and you will soon hear about the actual numbers (of IDPs),” he added.
The bulk of the IDPs coming from different parts of North Waziristan into Bannu district were registered by the army at various checkpoints. But many may have used unconventional mountaineer routes to enter Bannu or the Zhob district of the southwestern Baluchistan province. Furthermore, according to the federal management authority, some 6000 people have migrated to neighboring Afghanistan. The Afghan media, last month, reported figures exceeding 50,000.
Since June 15, Pakistan's army has been carrying out a military operation, involving air strikes and a ground invasion, in North Waziristan, against Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization of various insurgent groups in Pakistan.
Around 470 suspected militants, according to the Pakistani army, have so far been killed, while 31 soldiers have lost their lives in landmine blasts and clashes since the start of the operation.
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