Gulseli Kenarli
09 February 2026•Update: 09 February 2026
- 'A clear water deficit is carrying over from one year to the next across much of the country. This signals the new normal under climate change'
ISTANBUL
Türkiye endured one of the most intense droughts in the past half-century in 2025, with indications that the condition is becoming chronic and structural.
According to the 2025 Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) maps released by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), the 12- and 24-month indicators are particularly alarming.
The SPI, a key metric recommended by the World Meteorological Organization for monitoring meteorological drought, is -2 or lower, indicating severe drought.
Professor Mikdat Kadioglu from Istanbul Technical University's Department of Climate Science and Meteorological Engineering told Anadolu that Türkiye saw one of the harshest droughts in half a century in 2025.
He added: “A clear water deficit is carrying over from one year to the next across much of the country. This signals the new normal under climate change.”
Kadioglu noted that consecutive years of low rainfall have weakened soil moisture retention, lowered groundwater levels below critical thresholds, and increased the risk of sinkhole formation.
He emphasized that while 3-month SPI maps reflect short-term weather, the 12- and 24-month maps are more critical as they impact reservoirs, groundwater, agricultural production, and the economy.
These longer-term maps now show widespread red and black zones across Türkiye.
As of August 2025, approximately 70% of Türkiye's land area fell into severe or worse drought categories on the 12-month SPI map, forming a persistent drought belt.
In Istanbul, Türkiye's largest metropolis with a population of over 15.7 million, rainfall in June 2025 was just 0.5 millimeters—a 99% drop from long-term averages.
Reservoir levels hovered around 30% at times, with subsequent reports indicating even lower levels amid ongoing water stress.
Ankara, the capital with a population of around 5.9 million, and the broader Central Anatolia region it anchors, recorded their lowest rainfall in the last 65 years.
Ankara itself experienced its driest period in 47 years, severely impacting farming and water resources across the region.
Kadioglu also highlighted substantial agricultural losses in Thrace, northwestern Türkiye, including up to 90% yield declines in sunflowers and reduced seed oil content due to heat stress.
According to the expert, Türkiye's water budget now runs a chronic deficit on 12- and 24-month scales, impossible to close with traditional methods. The gap between drought and abundance is widening, with sharper transitions.
Kadioglu stressed that urgent water conservation measures, agricultural adaptation strategies, and long-term climate policies are no longer optional but essential. National-scale, basin-based, and fundamental decisions in water management have become a necessity.
*Writing by Selcuk Uysal
