Turkey to bargain over refugee crisis at summit

By Ilgin Karlidag

BRUSSELS

The EU and Turkey are expected to seal a deal on stemming the flow of refugees coming to Europe in exchange for speeding up Turkey’s accession talks and visa freedom for the country’s citizens.

But, as EU heads of government prepare to meet Turkey’s Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Brussels on Sunday, experts say the EU must be serious in its proposals to reach a solution.

"It [the refugee crisis] is becoming an increasingly urgent issue, which puts Turkey in a strong position," said Amanda Paul, an analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre think tank.

"The EU needs to make a serious proposal, otherwise more time will be wasted," she added.

Faced with the worst migrant and refugee crisis since World War II, the EU has turned its attention to Turkey for help. However, questions remain as to how much the bloc will be able to deliver to the candidate country, which hosts the most Syrian refugees in the world.

The Cyprus issue remains a major obstacle to Turkey’s accession plans, as several chapters are blocked by the Greek Cypriot administration.

Out of 35 chapters, which must be completed in order for the country to join the 28-nation bloc, only 13 have been opened.

"There will be concrete developments regarding the opening of the chapters but it’s likely to be more limited than what Turkey would [like]," said Sinan Ulgen, a scholar at Carnegie Europe.

Turkey’s minister of EU affairs, Volkan Bozkir, announced on Thursday that the EU had agreed to open chapter 17 on the economy by mid-December.

Ulgen says the ideal scenario would be an agreement on the Cyprus issue, which would have a positive impact on the pace of the accession talks.

"Without the Cyprus settlement, the revitalization of the accession talks would remain difficult," he said.

Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akinci and Greek Cypriot leader Nicos Anastasiades resumed talks on reunifying the island following Akinci’s election in April.

Negotiations were resumed following a two-year hiatus in February 2013 but stalled in October last year after a row over mineral exploration around the island.

Funding, visa freedom

As part of a refugee action plan, the EU has offered Turkey €3 billion ($3.1 billion) in funding to meet the needs of Syrian refugees hosted in the country.

EU leaders will also discuss accelerating the visa liberalization process for Turkish citizens seeking to visit the bloc’s Schengen borderless zone.

But after the Paris attacks on Nov 13 – the worst of its kind targeting France since World War II – far-right parties across the EU have sparked anti-immigrant and anti-refugee sentiments and governments have called for stepping up security and surveillance.

"As a result, this environment, where a number of key countries reshaped the narrative on refugees and terror, is going to create an environment more difficult for visa liberalization," Ulgen said.

"Disagreements over financial assistance, or a failure of the EU to give Turkey a concrete date for visa liberalization could be obstacles," Amanda Paul added.