By Michael Hernandez
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Iraq’s ongoing conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, commonly referred to as ISIL, is unlikely to be resolved without significant political concessions from, and perhaps the departure of, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, according to experts.
ISIL has extended its reach in Iraq since June 10 when it seized Iraq’s second-largest city Mosul and soon afterwards took near-complete control of the northern Iraqi city of Tikrit, the hometown of former dictator Saddam Hussein.
The group met sparse resistance from Iraq's security forces as it made its successive gains. In several cases large numbers of Iraqi security forces retreated from their positions as ISIL advanced. In doing so they abandoned not only their posts, but equipment supplied by Washington, which has now ended up in the hands of the militant group.
“They have incompetent leadership that Maliki put in there, and they’re not loyal to the Iraqi state,” said Lawrence Korb, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress think tank, while speaking to AA. “I don’t care how well trained you are, if you’re not motivated, you’re not going to fight and die for your country.”
In a chilling sign of the group's intent, ISIL announced on Sunday that it killed 1,700 Shia soldiers in Tikrit, but the veracity of the claim could not be independently verified.
ISIL had previously seized much of western Iraq’s Anbar Province in late December, including much of Fallujah and parts of Ramadi, flashpoints of the 2003 US-led war in the country. Hundreds have reportedly been killed in government airstrikes aimed at dislodging the militants there, which have so far proven unsuccessful.
“The first thing the U.S. has to do is either get Maliki to step aside or have an inclusive government, because no matter what you do, unless that happens, the situation is not going to get any better,” Korb said.
Divisive and oftentimes sectarian governance at the hands of the Iraqi premier has provided fertile soil for extremists to gain hold in the country.
“He has spent the last six years dismantling any sort of structure in Iraq that could have been inclusive and balanced and representative of most of the broad spectrum of political actors in the country,” said Faysal Itani, a fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank. “And he’s been monopolizing power for himself, not just as a Shia leader, but as Maliki.”
Last week U.S. President Barack Obama conditioned any U.S. support for Iraq’s military on the country’s leadership making ‘serious and sincere’ efforts to overcome deep-seated sectarian differences.
“Maliki, in my view, is one of the main reasons why the Sunni areas have become such a hotbed for extremism,” said Salman Shaikh, the director of the Brookings Doha Center.
It is unclear how far the U.S. is willing to pressure Maliki as Baghdad loses more and more ground to ISIL, but Obama has ruled out deploying U.S. troops to Iraq.
“The quandary in Iraq is the U.S. has no option but to support Maliki for the time being even though he is part of the problem,” said Itani. “There is a lot of noise about not supporting Maliki unless he does X,Y,Z, but really is the United States going to abandon Prime Minister Maliki and leave Baghdad to ISIS?”
ISIL is also known by the acronym ISIS.
If the extremist threat to Iraq is to be fully addressed, Iraq must mend its sectarian divides. Doing so requires the U.S. and regional partners to work side by side to pressure Maliki into making much-needed political concessions, and possibly leaving his post.
“If the U.S. goes for either direct military intervention or tries to bolster Maliki it will actually be missing a more difficult effort, but I think a more useful one” said Shaikh. “The United States, working with other key regional partners including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, needs to try to forge a new political compact in Iraq.”
In a sign of the severity of the extremist threat in Iraq, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told Yahoo! News on Monday that Washington is open to working with regional heavyweight and longtime rival Iran to bring an end to Iraq’s tumult.
“I think we are open to any constructive process here that could minimize the violence, hold Iraq together — the integrity of the country — and eliminate the presence of outside terrorist forces that are ripping it apart,” said Kerry.
And indeed, the challenge before Iraq and the international community does not appear to be one that the U.S. can adequately address on its own.
“The solution has got to be regional,"said Korb. "It can’t be just us."
www.aa.com.tr/en
