TEHRAN, Iran
The year 2022 brings with it many challenges for Iran's new government, as well as opportunities, including the revived nuclear talks in Vienna, efforts to avert an escalation of tensions with the West over Tehran's nuclear program, and ending the protracted war in Yemen, besides the countries various diplomatic efforts.
The year will also test President Ebrahim Raisi's administration on the domestic front -- containing the omicron variant of coronavirus, bringing down inflation, restoring stability in the foreign exchange market and easing the impact of US sanctions, as it has repeatedly vowed.
The greatest challenge, however, lies thousands of kilometers away, in the Austrian capital, where Tehran and world powers have been engaged in marathon talks since April last year with interludes in between, to end the continuing standoff over Iran's nuclear program.
The outcome of the talks will largely determine the success or failure of the Raisi administration at a time when sanctions are taking a heavy toll, impacting millions of people.
Ali Ahmadi, a strategic affairs analyst with a focus on US-Iran relations, said both sides have "complex leverage" with the eighth round currently underway in Vienna, as attention gradually shifts to Iran's key demands of sanctions removal, verification, and guarantees.
"The talks have put a lot of emphasis on sanctions removal but there are technical issues to work out as well," Ahmadi told Anadolu Agency. "The US wants some steps of Iran's nuclear progress made since Trump left the deal reversed. This is, like the non-nuclear sanctions imposed in the maximum pressure campaign, not addressed in the JCPOA so it will be an issue of contention."
Iran and six other powers have been in talks since April to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that was terminated three years ago by former US President Donald Trump. The Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran that have severely hampered its economy by drastically reducing its oil exports.
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Saeed Khatibzadeh, told reporters on Thursday there had been "progress" on Tehran's demands, along with other nuclear issues, attributing this to "realism" shown by the Western parties to the 2015 accord.
Iran's lead nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri, also noted "good progress" in the current round, while Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said talks in Vienna were moving in "good direction."
While the Iranian government has adopted a tougher line, vowing to untie its strategic interests from the nuclear deal and to neutralize sanctions, the Americans warn that Tehran is "playing with fire."
"We've seen Iran's nuclear program expand, and we've seen Tehran become more belligerent, more bellicose in its regional activities," US special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, said earlier this week.
Javad Heirannia, director at the Middle East Strategic Studies Center, said negotiations were a "bargaining process" wherein each side has its own "tools." In Iran's case, these tools are "nuclear progress."
"Despite Iran's poor economic situation, it has nuclear progress as a bargaining chip and is unlikely to lose all of it as a result of the new agreement," he told Anadolu Agency.
What most analysts, however, stress is that the outcome of the Vienna talks, expected to be decided in the coming weeks and months, will form the greatest foreign policy challenge for the Raisi government.
'Look East' policy
Iran's new government, as part of its "neighborhood first" policy, has made serious efforts in bolstering ties with allies China and Russia through long-term strategic agreements, while at the same time trying to bury the hatchet with estranged neighbors Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE).
This year, according to experts, will be critical in how these relations take shape, especially amidst the ongoing tension-easing talks between Tehran and Riyadh, brokered by the Iraqi government.
Iran's foreign minister has said Tehran presented "a set of practical proposals" to Riyadh, which were viewed "positively" by the Saudi authorities, setting the stage for a fresh round of talks in Baghdad.
"It was (former Iranian President) Hassan Rouhani who started the talks last year to end the five-year standoff with Riyadh, but it is Ebrahim Raisi who holds the key now," said Rasool Nemati, a regional affairs analyst, adding that the year 2022 would be "critical" in how these talks, as well as the war in Yemen, pan out.
On Iran's recent warming with Abu Dhabi after years of icy relations, Nemati said this was a "sign" that the Raisi administration is looking to "engage with both friendly and unfriendly neighbors."
Relations between Iran and the UAE have been strained since September 2020 when Abu Dhabi announced normalization of ties with Israel, brokered by the US.
"The fact that the foreign ministers of the two countries spoke a few times, the UAE's national security advisor travelled to Tehran and Iran's deputy foreign minister visited Abu Dhabi are an indication that the new Iranian government seeks rapprochement," said Nemati. "A lot depends on how the interaction continues this year between the two countries, but the shadow of Israel looms large."
This year is also expected to be important in the context of Tehran's growing ties with Moscow and China.
While Tehran has already signed a $400 billion "comprehensive agreement" with Beijing, which the two sides will start implementing this year provided the US sanctions are eased, a 20-year agreement with Moscow is also set to be finalized soon.
Iran's envoy to Moscow, Kazem Jalali, on Tuesday said that Raisi will most likely pay a visit to Russia in late January, adding that this will be a "turning point" in relations between the two countries. He, however, did not specify if the long-term agreement will be signed during this visit.
Domestic challenges
Iran's economy has been severely squeezed by US sanctions in recent years, leading to a meteoric rise in inflation, currency depreciation, exorbitant housing costs, unemployment, and widespread discontent.
Raisi's administration came with the promise of creating favorable conditions for economic growth through domestic and foreign investments, local production, and a spurt in non-oil exports.
Hamid Askari, an economic analyst and researcher, said 2022 would serve as a "litmus test" for the new government and its economic policies.
"First and foremost, reining in inflation and skyrocketing prices of essential commodities is the biggest task for Raisi administration, followed by restoring stability in the forex market, creating jobs, building affordable houses, and containing the new COVID-19 variant," Askari told Anadolu Agency.
According to Askari, working on robust economic policies, stabilizing markets, and controlling prices are the "key short-term challenges" facing the government this year.
In his remarks last week, Raisi said his government sought to alleviate the economic problems of the people by "tapping all existing capacities," adding that it was "possible" to reach 8 percent annual growth.
A lot will also depend on how the government deals with the new omicron variant of coronavirus and prevents it from inflicting any significant damage on the country's economy, experts believe.
Iran, the worst-hit country in the Middle East, has already seen six devastating waves of the pandemic since February 2020, crippling the sanctions-battered economy.
"The rapid pace of vaccination in recent months has been impressive, but the real challenge is to prevent omicron from gaining foothold in the country and bringing life to a halt again," said Askari. "The coming weeks and months would be decisive."
