- Dr. Fadi Zatari is Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Istanbul Sabahattin Zaim University and Deputy Director of Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA).
Following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023, by the Palestinian Resistance movement, the Israeli government disclosed some of its longstanding colonial objectives in the Gaza Strip, such as destroying the resistance movements in Gaza, especially Hamas, creating buffer security zones, and even some Israeli political actors advocating for the establishment of Israeli settlements in Gaza after expelling all the Palestinians.
After almost two years of Israeli genocide in Gaza, Israel found itself unable to move forward with military means, specifically with the continuous increase of the amount of solidarity with Palestine across the globe, and the loss of its narrative and "moral image" worldwide, especially in the West. This led Israel to pursue negotiation and diplomacy as another means to achieve its colonial, apartheid, and genocidal policies in Gaza.
The Palestinian resistance movements, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, considered the most active groups in Gaza, did not surrender or show any sign of such an end. There is no doubt that their steadfastness, resilience, and resistance stem from the Palestinian nation that embraces them. That is why the suggested disarmament of the resistance movements is not a political party's decision, but a Palestinian national decision.
One must not forget the wrenching decision of Fatah (Palestinian National Liberation Movement) to stop its armed struggle against the Israeli occupation and how that led to an impasse, without realizing the two-state solution or any other decent solution. In other words, the Palestinian resistance movements, in particular Hamas, know that giving up their arms means losing their legitimacy among the Palestinians and the Palestinian support for them.
The Board of Peace
The Board of Peace director, Nickolay Mladenov, returned to Cairo this week to discuss his plan with Hamas leaders. The plan, which he presented to the movement earlier, calls for the gradual disarmament of Hamas over eight months in exchange for a large-scale Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the entry of the Gaza Administrative Committee to begin its work.
Over time, and especially after the recent ceasefire in Gaza and the meeting of the Peace Council, it appears that the Peace Council is an ineffective instrument that signifies political concessions and mediation, while the Israeli destruction and violations still endure on the ground.
Hamas claims that it has implemented the entirety of the first phase of the plan, while Israel implemented only a small part of it. However, Israel is carrying out daily assassinations, bombings, and restrictions on the movement of goods and people. In addition, Israel continues to occupy more than half of the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, the blockade on the Gaza Strip has not been lifted.
No doubt that any agreement detached from rebuilding the Gaza Strip and lifting the blockade would be considered hollow by the Palestinians. So, this brings us to ask: can the Palestinians trust Israeli and American promises if they disarm their resistance movements?
There are several reasons to be pessimistic about the Board of Peace: On one hand, it lacks enforcement power and binding authority. Despite Israel's daily violations of the ceasefire, there were no consequences for Israel. On the other hand, the Board seems to function more as diplomatic theater than a real conflict-resolution mechanism.
Potential scenarios for Gaza
With Gaza's civilian infrastructure in ruins and a humanitarian catastrophe deepening, it seems that the Israeli government is not interested in any peace agreement. So, what are the potential scenarios for Gaza?
The first scenario: the situation remains unchanged, meaning no reconstruction in Gaza, and the continuation of the humanitarian tragedy, where around 1.4 million of the 2.2 million residents lack basic healthcare and humane living conditions. This scenario is highly feasible due to international preoccupation with the US-Israeli war on Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the possibility of a global economic collapse or even the war spreading to other countries. All of this diverts attention from the tragedy in the Gaza Strip.
The second scenario is a return to the genocidal war in Gaza, as Israeli media recently published reports stating that the Israeli army has begun preparing to resume the war in Gaza, to achieve the first and most important goal of the war, according to them, which is to disarm Hamas.
Benjamin Netanyahu may resort to resuming the war in Gaza, after failing to achieve his stated goals in the Iran war as well as in Lebanon. This is to restore his popularity, especially in the coming months, when Israel holds crucial general elections.
It must be remembered that Israel's radical policies in recent years have relied solely on violence and terrorism on several fronts: the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. Israel pursues further expansion of its borders to realize its goal of "Greater Israel."
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.
