- For Europe, the Trump administration will likely be seen as another dark age. European security and the future of NATO will once again become critical issues
The author is head of Türkiye, Asia, and Indo-Pacific studies at the Institute for International Relations and Strategic Research at Yildirim Beyazit University in the Turkish capital Ankara, and an associate professor at the same university.
ISTANBUL
Alongside a sweeping Republican victory in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and securing a majority in Congress, Donald Trump has been elected to a second term as US president, receiving the highest number of votes in the history of the Republican Party. In his political communication strategy, a key approach Trump used was reaching out to every segment of American society, whether minority or majority and persuading them through populist rhetoric that addressed their concerns.
Analyzing the recent election results, it’s clear that beyond economic concerns, Trump’s populist foreign policy agenda played a key role in influencing American voters, particularly in swing states. This outcome raises many questions: what foreign policy approaches might Trump adopt globally, how will US foreign policy evolve in this new Trump era, and how might global crises be impacted by these changes?
Shaking the world with uncertainty
Since 2013, American leadership and foreign policy have faced new challenges, particularly with China’s increased presence in global politics through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In there, the recent crises – such as the unending aggression by Israel on Palestine, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict – highlight significant uncertainties about how the US will address each of these complex issues.
Trump’s second-term victory makes these questions even more pertinent, as critics recall the concerns raised during his first administration from 2016 to 2020. It’s evident that the world is moving into a new phase of uncertainty, with the potential for significant shifts in the current world order. Whether the outcomes will be positive or negative remains to be seen, but in the short term, we may expect increased chaos and turbulence in global politics.
Trump’s foreign policy in between the forceful and persuasive approaches
It is likely that the world will again witness hegemonic and forceful foreign policy behavior during the second term of the Trump administration. Although Trump has pledged to end the war between Russia and Ukraine and to create peace in the Middle East, achieving these goals will likely prove to be more challenging than anticipated.
In Palestine, Israeli aggression has resulted in the killing of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians. Will Trump put an end to this aggression? The simple answer is no. Instead, he is likely to attempt to revive the "Abraham Accords" and focus on gaining the support of Israel’s neighboring Muslim-majority states. By using coercion or offering incentives, the goal might be to persuade those states to support Israel’s actions and turn a blind eye to the oppression of the Palestinian people.
It should be noted that in the history of Israel and the United States, Trump was the first leader to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. During his election campaign, he explicitly stated that he would support Israel more than the Biden administration. Furthermore, Netanyahu’s regime has shown a greater affinity for Trump compared to the Biden-Harris administration. When examining Trump's rhetoric and narrative regarding Israel’s aggression toward Palestine, he frequently emphasizes the word "peace" without addressing the need to end Israel’s unilateral invasion – a stance he adopts differently in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. This indicates that under a Trump administration, there will likely be little to no support or place for the Palestinian case or pro-Palestinian supporters.
For Iran, the Trump administration’s second term will likely present significant challenges, with no diplomatic resolution in sight for the Iranian nuclear deal. To navigate international politics, Iran may have to compromise its current foreign policy agenda in the Middle East. Otherwise, it risks becoming a focal point for proxy conflicts involving both Israel and the US. While a full-scale war between Israel and Iran or between Iran and the US might not occur, small-scale conflicts are expected to become a routine and a pivotal aspect of the region’s dynamics.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, it appears that the Trump administration will aim to halt Ukraine’s progress and create a turning point favorable for Russia. It is evident that the Trump administration does not plan to provide additional military or economic aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia. Consequently, Europe or countries like the UK will need to sustain the war effort, or Ukraine will need to seek a resolution for the nation’s benefit. Ultimately, Trump’s actions are likely to be advantageous for Russia and Putin.
Beginning from Trump’s first term, and continuing into his second term, it has been clear that he does not want to create more problems with Russia; instead, he aims to focus on curbing China’s dominance and assertiveness in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe. This term will likely be no exception. We can expect increased tensions between the US and China across various domains, including trade, technology, space, energy, digitalization, and AI. For China, Trump’s period will be particularly challenging, and we will likely see more proxy conflicts around the world as a result of the USA-China rivalry. Many countries in East Asia and South Asia, such as Taiwan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, Afghanistan, Myanmar and the Philippines, may find themselves caught in the crossfire due to the foreign policies and national interests of both powers. Apart from that, organizations and security dialogues like IMMEC, IPS, AUKUS, and QUAD will be high on Trump’s agenda to counter China's rise.
For Europe, the Trump administration will likely be seen as another dark age, reminiscent of the period before the Peace of Westphalia or the French Revolution. European security and the future of NATO will once again become critical issues. European countries will need to reconsider and possibly enhance their own security measures. In addition, Trump’s favorable relations with Russia imply ongoing and protracted threats to Europe’s future security.
Starting in January 2025, after Trump’s inauguration, we are likely to see a resurgence of world politics driven by platform X, bringing sudden and unpredictable developments. The slogans “America First” and “Make America Great Again” will once again resonate, especially among white supremacists, Islamophobics, and European far-right groups, potentially leading to a power vacuum filled with chaos and the decline of the liberal international order.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.
