Marcus Vinicius De Freitas is a visiting professor at the China Foreign Affairs University and a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, based in Morocco.
Brazil’s voters have given President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva another chance to govern. His victory also preserves the country’s freedom to negotiate its international partnerships. The election results leave Lula responsible for demonstrating what he can deliver in a fourth term. Whether an octogenarian president in a Latin America that is turning conservative can do so is a defining question for the next four years.
Lula won 51.79 percent of valid votes, compared with Flavio Bolsonaro’s 48.21 percent, reversing a 1.87-point deficit from the first round. Almost half of voters cast valid ballots for his opponent. A fourth presidential victory demonstrates extraordinary personal resilience, but it cannot be read as an endorsement of his entire record.
Anatomy of a comeback
The comeback required mobilization beyond Lula’s loyal base. National abstention fell from 21.08 percent in the first round to roughly 19.2 percent. Lula’s campaign stepped up its outreach to those who had stayed home or remained unconvinced.
The electoral geography is clearer. Gains in Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and Bahia together brought Lula millions of additional votes compared with the first round, widening his overall margin over Bolsonaro. Lula recovered Minas Gerais and reinforced his advantage in the Northeast. He also won the city of Sao Paulo, although Bolsonaro carried the state. The decisive expansion therefore went beyond familiar Workers’ Party strongholds.
Pre-election polling had shown Lula stronger among poorer voters and women. These constituencies help explain his coalition, but claims about specific vote transfers require further evidence. Politically, the result suggests that dissatisfaction with Lula did not automatically translate into confidence in a Bolsonaro successor. Voters could demand change while remaining uneasy about the alternative.
Foreign interference and national autonomy
Foreign involvement complicated that choice. Donald Trump’s pressure, Javier Milei’s campaigning and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s endorsement gave Bolsonaro international visibility. What Flavio Bolsonaro expected to be a decisive asset for his campaign proved instead to be a poisoned chalice. It enabled Lula to link his defense of sovereignty to a tangible concern: whether Brazil’s next government would negotiate independently or import foreign patrons’ priorities.
Foreign involvement helped Lula politically by giving his sovereignty argument a concrete target. Establishing the precise electoral effect of this foreign pressure, however, is harder. The result alone cannot tell us how many voters rejected Bolsonaro because of outside backing. Nevertheless, economic pressure gave the president grounds to frame autonomy as a protection for Brazilian livelihoods, including those affected by tariffs, rather than as an abstract diplomatic ambition.
The election offers a difficult lesson. Jair Bolsonaro's decision to promote his son reinforced the movement’s dependence on one family. A modern conservative alternative needs credible programs for security and public spending, as well as leaders with executive experience. Social media reach helped conservative candidates compete, but winning national office requires proving that their organisations have the competence to govern.
Lula faces a related succession problem. His fourth victory confirms how heavily the Brazilian left depends on him. He should use this term to strengthen party institutions and groom leaders capable of carrying his platform beyond his presidency. Repeating past achievements will not satisfy younger voters seeking better education, productive employment and protection from violence.
Pragmatism abroad
Abroad, the outcome favours continuity of strategic autonomy. Brazil should negotiate constructively with Washington on trade and security while maintaining its partnerships with China and the wider Global South. Chinese demand sustains key Brazilian export sectors, where the United States is actually a direct competitor, particularly in soybeans. Sacrificing commercial opportunities to demonstrate political loyalty would cost Brazilian producers.
BRICS gives Brazil a forum to help shape institutions alongside other major developing economies. Lula should use that position to secure finance and technological cooperation that support development at home. International prominence needs practical results to retain domestic support.
The immediate political task is reconciliation. The late extension of voting hours, amid transport and weather difficulties, requires a transparent explanation. Institutions should answer questions with evidence and follow lawful procedures to protect confidence in the result and prevent grievances from hardening into a permanent refusal to accept electoral defeat.
Lula’s legacy will ultimately depend on confronting corruption, improving learning outcomes and making communities safer. That requires investigations that reach politically connected offenders, schools that teach pupils to understand what they read and security policies that protect residents from organized crime. Success must be visible in public services and opportunities, including for those who voted against him. Political parties must also recruit and prepare capable public servants rather than treating online popularity as a sufficient qualification. The next four years offer Brazil an opportunity to begin renewing both political camps. Voters have entrusted Lula with another mandate; the country now needs a government that can turn that mandate into improvements people can recognize.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.
